The Irish 2000 Guineas last week saw Romanised Mig, Gustav Klimt and US Navy Flag. Those latter two horses were two of three horses at 5/1 and lower and Gustav was one of two horses with a run at Newmarket last time out (14 of the last 16 winners had same).
And as to the Champions League Final? Well, I got all excited at 1-0 and even more so at 3-1. I backed 3-2 and 2-3 at 22 odds, but Liverpool could not find a second goal. A valiant effort!
This week I’ve been trading the French Open tennis and if you’re a reader of What Really Wins Money, I’ll be sharing a simple and profitable strategy with you in June’s newsletter.
This strategy can be applied to Wimbledon: Grand Slam tennis really is excellent for the bettor and for the trader.
My strategy allows you to back at the high for very strong favourites. Here’s a Price/Volume Over Time graph for Bautista-Agut. This graph is simply a look at the match from his odds perspective.
The start of the match is on the left, where Agut was extremely short odds. Agut was in trouble, third set. His odds rose to a high of 3.5. He fought back as an extremely short-odds favourite.
The bettor – well, he gets enhanced odds.
The trader – well, he backs at the high, and lays at the low, and hey presto, sits on a famed green screen.
I offer this kind of trading advice for members of my trading service www.drt.club and have admittedly had a cracking French Open!
If you have kept my previous eletters and the tennis examples provided there, then you can piece together my favoured strategy which enabled me to back Caroline Wozniacki in a Grand Slam at 50/1 and win!
The Derby!
The classics come quick and fast. Sumptuous racing today and, of course, the Epsom Derby tomorrow. The Derby is run at 16:30 tomorrow and has been an Aidan O’Brien love-in in recent years.
A likely 12 starters, this makes the Derby fruitful for each-way bettors. Aidan O’Brien has trained four of the last six winners, and his Saxon Warrior is evens favourite, with the next best horse at 7/1!
Two of O’Brien’s recent Derby winners were favourites, but equally two were outsiders. One a third-favourite and, of course, Wings of Eagles at a whopping 40/1 last year.
Last year’s winning jockey P. Beggy is on another outsider, Zabrinskie, and I do not think lightning will strike twice.
With such a strong favourite, you are a backer or a layer. Any way you play, evens is the pay out.
I would look to back Hazapour each way for Dermot Weld (if Pat Smullen was fit, he would take the ride), Dee Ex Bee each way (Silvestre de Sousa is THE form jockey in the last 14 days) and small stakes on Pentagon and Kew Gardens each way – that O’Brien outsider may grab a place.
The value of course is in taking on Saxon Warrior, but what do you do with such a strong favourite?
Good luck if you play.
Next week it’s time to look at the World Cup. I’m off now to apply for the vacant Real Madrid job. My Sunday league side did win with nine men once (two were still out on the beer), so I think I am good credentials-wise.