Ayr was abandoned yet again last week but I made a good fist of it in the Mill Reef. I mentioned the strong stat favouring, erm, favourites, and Invincible Army I suggested was a good each way play – yes, even at odds of 5/2. He came second.
My speculative bigger-priced play, Nebo, finished third at 15/2. That is the beauty of each way betting. We were there at the business end of the race, but still do not leave the race out of pocket.
Incidentally, What Really Wins Money members were in each-way clover yesterday, as out of six selections, five placed. Out of those five, we had two winners at decimal odds of 5.3 and 25.41. The 25.41 winner paid out decimal odds of 4.15 for placing as well. As you can appreciate, I let out a quiet ‘Ker-ching’!
This is the power of each way betting and is why I include it in my betting portfolio. I have written here before about my personal each way strategy, which is so logical Dr Spock actually uses it when he visits Vulcan for the Vulcan Grand National: focus on the smallest field which pays out for three places.
It really is a weekend of Ferrero Rocher racing: ‘Ambassador, with all of this racing, you are really spoiling us’! It is Arc de Triomphe weekend in Chantilly. Not content with Sunday’s show-stopper, Saturday at Newmarket sees a Group 2 and two Group 1 races to start their card. The Chevely Park and Middle Park stakes are the showcase races there.
Again, with these high-profile races, make use of the free work done by the likes of www.trendyrich.com. I have no affiliation with the site. I just like their freely available past-winner trends! They have done the work already.
So let’s take a look at the two Group 1 races tomorrow and the L’arc de Triomphe.
14:20 Newmarket Saturday 30th September 2017
Twenty-one of the last 23 winners won over the same distance previously.
Five favourites have won in the last ten years. The last two favourites finished third. Eighteen of the last 22 winners came from the first three in the betting. That is quite something.
The market has three horses under 8/1, four horses under 14/1 and very little for us to get stuck into. Ryan Moore, my choice last week on Nebo, rides the favourite Clemmie at 13/8 currently.
Interestingly there is no second or third Aidan O’Brien runner. That may be a clue in itself that Clemmie is expected to run very well.
The Spock-like logical angle for me tomorrow is to back second and third-favourites Heartache and Threading each way. If 18 of the last 22 winners come from the first three in the betting, we have two covered.
14:55 Newmarket Saturday 30th September 2017
The Middle Park Stakes is more competitive. Nineteen of the last 22 winners of this race had won last time out. Quite a trend.
All of the last 23 winners were distance winners.
Only four winners in the last ten runnings. The favourites on this occasion are far higher priced at 4/1 as I write.
I will look at a higher-odds Aidan O’Brien runner, US Navy Flag under Saemie Heffernan, who has done plenty of winning on Aidan O’Brien horses.
Another eye-catching jockey is Pat Smullen from Ireland on Beckford. This is Smullen’s first ride for Gordon Elliot, which catches my eye. Backing both each way and a warning: this is a very competitive race, as you can tell by 4/1 with the market leader.
And so to the Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. All we have at the moment is ante-post odds for the Arc De Triomphe.
This is an 18-runner race so is a tough nut to crack.
John Gosden’s Enable dominates the market here and is only 2.1 odds on Betfair. Aidan O’Brien’s three horses, Winter, Ulysses and Order of St George, are the next three in the betting.
France have dominated this race over the years, but 2015 and 2016 saw Great Britain and Ireland take the prize.
Ryan Moore has won the Arc twice since 2010, which is quite a feat.
I am going for four horses in the Arc each way, opposing the very able Enable.
A good stall draw for the cheese-munchers means I will back Zarak each way. Ryan Moore has opted for Winter in a single-figure draw each way, but I personally will choose Ulysses and Order of St George as my picks for Ireland. Brametot concludes my choices as another wine-guzzling-cheese-eating-beret-wearer.
Good luck with your plays!
On the football front I will be as busy as a Donald Trump hair-thatcher with my football trading service www.drt.club. If you want a bet-and-go strategy which has been killing it in the last two weeks, then check out this: http://matthewwalton.co.uk/sfib-canonbury-offer.
There are only a few places left and The Scotsman has shown how a specialisation in one area (funnily enough, Scotland) has really paid off.
Enjoy the racing and the football.