I’ve just put the finishing touches to February’s edition of What Really Wins Money and this month’s newsletter is traditionally focused on the Cheltenham Festival.
I would do a Cheltenham Festival special in March but by the time it reaches your letter box, the Festival would be over – d’oh!
It’s a great newsletter as usual. Andrew David (www.bettingdoctor.co.uk) provides us with a real form masterclass. He is your good ol’-fashioned form aficionado. It is this form analysis which has produced a near 100 point profit since he began writing his Cheltenham articles for What Really Wins Money.
The Statman looks at race profiling. Race profiling is similar to my Past Winner Trends in that he looks at the make-up of the previous 19 winning favourites in order to highlight similarities in characteristics.
Let me give you a taster of his Race Profile for the 14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase on Tuesday 14 March 2017…
Remove horses from the final declaration list as follows:
1) aged six (100%)
2) aged twelve or above (100%)
3) priced at 4/1 or less (100%)
4) that finished ninth or worse last time out (note – horse must have completed) (100%)
5) who fell or pulled up last time out (100%)
6) with an official rating of 126 or less (100%)
7) with an official rating of 150 or above (100%)
8) who raced within the last 15 days (100%)
9) whose last race was 121 days or more ago (100%)
10) with less than two runs in the last 365 days (100%)
11) with more than seven runs in the last 365 days (100%)
12) with less than two runs this current season (100%)
13) yet to race over three miles or more (100%)
14) carrying more than 11-10 (95%)
It should be pretty self-explanatory how you work these stats. It’s a simple process of elimination. All pertinent information needed is found in the race cards at www.racingpost.com or www.sportinglife.com.
I will be utilising these Race Profiles myself. Who knows? I might be doing a Twitter chat specifically for the Cheltenham Festival. Stay tuned (It does come during my birthday so no promises!)
One website I particularly like is http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races.
This site will be doing its Cheltenham profiles far nearer to 14 March. Take a look. It’s free and, like www.trendyrich.com provides you with a free ‘Past Winners Trends’ look at major races.
As to Cheltenham Festival itself, this is a shortlist of the best websites I have found which provide detailed analysis of past trends for each race:
http://cheltenham-festival.betting-directory.com/trends.php – Here I would note the 100% stats. Using the 14:50 race above as an example, here are the two stats that particularly caught my attention: ‘There has not been a winner rated higher than 150 for thirty years plus’; and ‘Trainer Paul Nicholls has never won this race’.
https://juicestorm.com/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival/2017-cheltenham-gold-cup-betting-trends/ – The focus here is specifically on the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
http://www.thestatsdontlie.com/horse-racing/festivals/cheltenham/ – Coverage here is very clearly laid out and comprehensive.
http://cheltenhamtrends.co.uk/ – This website takes an approach similar to the Statman’s. I particularly like www.thestatsdontlie.com as it also covers some excellent football stats trends.
So, get reading. Cheltenham is but a month away. And What Really Wins Money newsletter readers, look forward to your Cheltenham Festival special which will be with you in good time.