For those of you reading this who are What Really Wins Money members, I’ve been putting the final touches to March’s edition of the Newsletter ( free Guinness stain with each edition to commemorate Cheltenham and my Birthday!). The focus funnily enough is on the imminent return of the Flat Season.
Articles on 2-year olds, breeding, and a flat specific ( April to September) ‘blast from the past’ horse racing system from our resident vintage betting system specialist the Patriarch, dominates the newsletter.
Do you have a Flat Season betting system in place?
Here’s an idea for you to employ this Flat Season.
Look at novices, aged 2 or 3 years old, when they run on ‘undulating’ race courses.
What is an ‘undulating’ race course. The most immediate example I suppose is Brighton. These are the undulating tracks, in Alphabetical Order for the UK and Ireland.
Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Epsom, Exeter, Fakenham, Folkstone, Goodwood, Hamilton, Hereford, Hexham, Kelso, Leicester, Market Rasen, Plumpton, Pontefract, Sedgefield, Clonmel, Curragh, Downroyal, Downpatrick, Galway, Gowran Park, Kilbeggan, Naas, Navan, Punchestown, Thurles, Tramore, and Wexford.
The idea here is to find a lay strategy. Novices are , well, novicey, and are confronted with a race course whose undulations present problems when running at speed.
Does my idea bear fruit in the real world?
We are looking at novices , aged 2-3 year olds, on the flat or all-weather, in non-handicaps.
Well, straight off the bat, no it doesn’t. There are very few selections at these tracks. 387 over the last 10 years. These selections are on a 5 bet winning run in 2018 and over time, a modest 10 points profit to Betfair SP has been forthcoming.
Distance
For the backer of 2-3 year-old novice favourites , 5 and 6 furlong races between them provide a 40 point profit to Betfair SP ( BSP) and a 27 point profit to Industry SP( ISP)
Course
No outstanding results by course, although Catterick sees a 13 point profit to BSP and 10 point profit to ISP. If backing novice favourites here.
11 runner races are optimum for the novice favourite backer. 25 races over the last 10 years, 14 winners, 19 points profit BSP and 76% ROI.
Draw
As this is the flat season, the draw is important. Novices favourites drawn 2 have produced a marginal 10 point profit over 65 races. And that despite 8 of the last 10 qualifiers winning their races.
My first foray into the flat. At www.racingpost.com, this coming flat and all-weather season, look out for novice non-handicap races. You will see the name ‘novice’ in the title of the race. Make sure these novices are 2-3 year-olds.
Sprint distances seem to favour the backers. 5-6 furlongs. 11 runner races are where these favourites excel. Only a few 11 runner races so they may be worth watching out for. And draw 2 over all of these undulating courses sees a reasonable 10 point profit over 65 races.
My favourite stat? 11 runner races may be worth waiting for these novices to back the favourites in.
I’ll be investigating more Flat Season favourite based form book ideas as the Flat Season gets nearer. Next week, though, will obviously be all about Blinking Cheltenham!