A look at favourites on Boxing Day and New Year’s Day - What Really Wins Money

I thought I would look this week at whether there are any long term trends we can use for the race meetings on Boxing Day and New Year’s Day

Boxing Day – 26th December 18, 2020

Here are some of the key stats which caught my eye, over the last 10 years. All stats refer to favourites and are to Betfair SP throughout.

  • Back : 18.5 points profit in 2 mile and 6 furlong races
  • Lay: 13 points in 2 miles and 5 furlong races.
  • Back: Limerick – 12.14 points profit ; Towcester – 8 points profit; Fontwell – 7 points profit
  • Lay: Huntingdon – 14 points profit ; Leopardstown – 13.5 points
  • Back: Maiden races – 15 points profit
  • Lay – 7 runner races – 15 points profit; 16 runners – 11 points profit
  • Back: Favourites at Evens – 15 points profit
  • Lay: favourites priced at 2/1 – 18 points profit ; favourites priced at 7/2 – 14 points profit
  • Lay: favourites wearing tongue ties – 24 points profit ( look for a t in the race card near the horse’s name)
  • Lay Favourites from these trainers: Nigel Twiston-Davies – 1 winner in 14 ; A J Martin – 0 winners in 9 ; John Wade – 0 winners in 6
  • Lay Favourites when these jockeys are riding them : Brian Hughes – 2 wins in 16 ; Wayne Hutchinson – 0 winners from 9 ; Sam Twiston-Davies – 0 winners from 8 ; Harry Skelton – 1 win in 10 ; Davey Russell – 2 wins from 12 on favourites on Boxing Day. Too many mince pies for these folk?
  • Lay: Favourites who are top weight on Boxing Day – 28 points profit

Let’s take a look at New Year’s Day

  • Back: favourites in 2 mile races – 11.35 points profit
  • Lay: – favourites in 1 mile and 7 furlong races – 13.5 points ; 3 mile and 1 furlong races – 13 points profit
  • Back: favourites in Hurdles races – 23 points profit
  • Lay – favourites in Chase races – 24 points profit
  • Back: Favourites at Cheltenham – 15 points ; Exeter – 12 points
  • Lay : Favourites at Catterick – 18 points profit
  • Back: Handicap races – 31 points profit ; Hurdle Races – 23 points profit
  • Back: Favourites in 14 runner, 12 runner and 11 runner races – 12 points, 12 points and 12 points.
  • Lay: Favourites in 6 runner races – 12 points; 8 runner races – 10 points.
  • Back: Favourites at odds of 5/2 – 21 points profit
  • Back: Favourites wearing cheekpieces – 13 points profit ( p in the race card)
  • Back: Favourites coming off the back of a 29-42 day absence – 18 points profit.

Not spectacular profits because our focus is on a single day.  What stands out for me?

The Twiston-Davies seem to love their mince pies because their record with favourites on Boxing Day is poor, both the trainer and jockey. Take note of those poorly performing jockeys too at Boxing Day, particularly the usually solid Davey Russell who may have had too many sprouts of the Brussell.

On New Year’s Day, Hurdles for the favourite backer, Chases for the favourite layer. Catterick is good historically for laying favourites.

Backing favourites in Handicap races sees a 31 points profit. And the other standout? 21 points profit on New Year’s Day backing favourites when their odds are 5/2

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