Bankers or Blowouts

Selections for Tuesday 7th July 2015

Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Tuesday 7th July 2015

I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you tdivisioo employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

  • A 1-0 for HJK until the 86th minute – d’oh! Nomme Kalju won 2-1.  4-0 to Trelleborgs was spot on for a 1.13 shot. Serena was my bet of the day, beating her brother in 2 sets. Andy Murray made it 6-0 in head to heads.

Today

 

 

Some great trading @whatreallywins  . I currently have a nice green screen on the Novak match from 0-2 down to 2-2!

Wimbledon  @whatreallywins

1pm – Maria Sharapova v Coco Vandeweghe – 1.24 Maria

  • Coco has been having an exceptional Wimbledon but then so has Maria. Due deference to Coco that Maria is NOT 1.1 or lower in the betting market.
  • 4th v 47th in the world. The earlier Sharapova hiccups seem to have subsided.
  • Like Novak ( when he is not meeting giant South Africans), Maria has tended towards 6-3, 6-4. A game plan of breaking then holding and winning the set.
  • Coco has been battling. Against Safarova, it required 2 tie breaker sets. Against Pliskova, another tie breaker set win.
  • I would have to lay Maria if she wins the first set. Yes she is yet to lose a set, but Coco with her 2 tie breaker wins against a solid Safarova could offer some firm resistance 2nd set.

230pm – Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka – 1.3 Serena

  • Bet of the Tournament so far for me. Serena at 1.25 against her brother Venus. Now she meets the screamer and is slightly higher odds today. Like Venus, Azarenka has been in the wilderness for a while ( maybe the result of hanging around with that bell-end DJ with the massive hair, I don’t know) but this Wimbledon she has returned to something like her ruthless best.
  • 1st v 24th in the rankings. 17-3 in head to heads for Serena really is compelling and reminds us that Azarenka was a contender in the recent past.
  • I have been laying Azarenka after winning first sets all tournament based on her recent poor form and have been left short-changed with her 2-0 wins.
  • Heather Watson was the only player to take a set of Serena this Wimbledon.
  • A feeling we should lay the first set winner in the 2-0 set betting market ( if liquid enough). We should see a ding-dong 2nd survival set.

315pm – Garbiñe Muguruza v Timea Bacsinszky – 1.78 Garbine

  • 20th v 15th in the rankings and I would have to agree with the market. This is going to be a tight one and likely both players have an equal shot at taking a set
  • Lay the 1st set winner?
  • Right off the bat, it is Garbine who has the most impressive form with a really tough run in this tournament. Lucic-Baroni is a tough cookie, Kerber is a solid yardstick ( both 3 setters) , and then a straight sets win over Wozniacki!
  • Timea did beat Lisicki in 2 sets , which is her most eye-catching piece of form. She dropped her only set last match v Nicolescu.
  • Instinctually for me, I would side with Garbine as far as having the toughest route to this part of WImbledon and therefore would have to lay Timea 2-0 set betting, particularly if she wins the 1st set.

445pm – Madison Keys v Agnieszka Radwanska – 1.5 Aggy

  • 21st v 13th – this has the makings of a potential 3 setter or at least a tiebreaker somewhere.
  • 0-3 to Aggy in head to heads.
  • Madison had a couple of tiebreaker wins in the 1st and 2nd matches so is lucky to still be here. She dropped the 1st set v Olga last match and if you were @whatreallywins then you would have layed Olga a set up. Madison won the next 2, so that showed some battleing qualities.
  • Aggy had her toughest set of the tournament in the opener v Jelena Jankovic and won it 7-5. The other matches have been straightforward.
  • I may lay the first set winner here, particularly if the first set is a tie breaker.