Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
8 210 catterick Betting forecast: 5/4 Lord Navits, 15/8 It´s A Mans World, 13/2 All The Aces 3rd 1.93 1.14
5 410 catterick Betting forecast: 6/4 Cousin Guillaume, 2/1 Henri De Boistron, 5/1 Narcissist, 4th 3.22 1.8
9 440 catterick Betting forecast: 7/4 Sportingfriendship, 11/4 Cave Hunter, 11/2 Talkin Thomas, 3rd 2.86 1.4
10 320 down Betting forecast: 7/4 Indian Rupee, 2/1 Jumptoconclusions, 5/1 Stynes, 1st 1.33
7 520 down Betting forecast: Evs Alberta, 5/4 Hot On Her Heels, 12/1 Louie The Second, 1st 1.22
6 430 ling Betting forecast: 5/4 Four Seasons, 5/2 Greatest Journey, 6/1 Pharmaceutical, 1st 1.98 1.36
Today
8 435 clonmel Betting forecast: Evs Horse No Name, 3/1 Leighinmohr, 5/1 Dawerann,1st 1.37
7 535 clonmel Betting forecast: 4/6 Augustin, 3/1 Sizinguptheamazon, 8/1 Ben Button, – 2nd 1.2
7 415 carlisle Betting forecast: 13/8 Greybougg, 2/1 Poker School, 7/1 Masirann, – 2nd 1.57
7 425 sthl Betting forecast: 7/4 It Must Be Faith, 7/4 Oriental Relation, 7/1 Pea Shooter, – 1st 1.6
8 455 sthl Betting forecast: 6/4 Sleet, 2/1 Fairy Wing, 7/1 Doctor Hilary, – 2nd 1.16
10 320 down Betting forecast: 7/4 Indian Rupee, 2/1 Jumptoconclusions, 5/1 Stynes, 1st 1.33
hi clive, indian rupee PU, but i notice on racing post that jump to conmclusions was the fav, so question is, as indian rupee was listed first in the timeform, do we take that as being the FAV? i have always just taken the first horse listed, am i doing this wrongly?