A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

8 320 hamilton Betting forecast: 7/4 Ralphy Lad, 15/8 Silver Duke, 5/1 Latin Rebel, 4th 2.74 1.4
7 355 hamilton Betting forecast: 5/4 Grandad´s World, 5/2 Canny Kool, 6/1 George Dryden, 5th 1.78 1.34
9 315 salisbury Betting forecast: 7/4 Soluble, 11/4 Purple Rock, 8/1 Maxwell, 3rd 2.91 1.35
10 540 sligo Betting forecast: 11/10 Novis Adventus, 5/2 Xebec, 5/1 Torcedor, 4th 1.78 1.13

 Today

6 205 curragh Betting forecast: 5/4 Mimicking, 7/4 State Of Emergency, 9/2 Blood Moon,
4 425 curragh Betting forecast: 1/2 Fascinating Rock, 5/2 Parish Hall, 12/1 Euphrasia,
22 540 downroyal Betting forecast: 6/4 Last Encounter, 7/4 Okotoks, 11/2 Woodford Island,
12 130 kempton Betting forecast: 5/4 Rock N Rhythm, 3/1 General Ginger, 10/1 Jupiter Storm,
5 200 kempton Betting forecast: 4/5 Art Mauresque, 9/4 Cash And Go, 8/1 Billy Merriott,
8 405 warwick Betting forecast: 11/8 Storming Strumpet, 5/2 Surtee Du Berlais, 11/2 Timon´s Tara,