Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Monday 27th July 2015

Each way betting – a background How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd . By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour. Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus. 1) we select only from 8/9 runner races 2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection .

A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place. 3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here. Make sure you check the place onlyterms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

 

230 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 11/10 Tahira, 11/8 Tea In Transvaal, 12/1 Hija, 16/1 Annskert Lady, 16/1 Cabin Fever, 16/1 Moulin Rouge, 33/1 Flemerina, 50/1 Crosslanes.
usual Hija  – 6th 48.69
speculative Cabin Fever – 3rd 39 win and 2.71 place

As suspected, both favourites clogged the first 2 places so the best result was one of our selections placing. Miserable place only terms on Betfair though for such a big priced selection . I am happy to take the hit in this race as I have profited very well well the 2 strong favourites under-perform. We got a big priced winner only last week and this is the race type of my famous 125/1 winner Run With Pride!

Today

515 galway Betting forecast: 6/4 Zafayan, 2/1 Bachasson, 9/2 Moonmeister, 6/1 Neverushacon, 9/1 All The Answers, 20/1 Sea´s Aria, 33/1 Annadiamond, 66/1 Walk Of Shame.
usual Moonmeister
speculative All the Answers

Another apparent 2 horse race at Galway. The 3rd favourite picks himself. I also went with the horse near the 3 outsiders. Yes the front 2 might clog the places, but as this is Irish racing, I hope we get a shock result.
215 na Betting forecast: 1/3 Lamool, 6/1 Only Gorgeous, 7/1 Sky Watch, 12/1 Beat The Tide, 20/1 Theatre Goer, 25/1 Lee Side Lady, 50/1 I´llhavealook, 50/1 Milburn.
usual Sky Watch
speculative Beat the Tide

Lamool is highly likely to win but then so was that 1/6 shot last week. This is a jumps race too so all it takes is an error and we have a sniff of a chance.
525 na Betting forecast: 11/10 Wilde Oak, 7/2 Junior Package, 6/1 Good Rhythm, 10/1 Airpur Desbois, 14/1 Arthur Burrell, 14/1 Black Kettle, 16/1 Wy Worry, 33/1 Josie Jump, 33/1 Menace.
usual Junior Package
speculative Airpur Desbois

Junior Package is the obvious horse here and I went with 10/1 shot as the speculative choice. I suppose one of the 14/1 shots is more speculative. Again we need Wilde Oak to have a bad day at the office.
835 windsor Betting forecast: 15/8 Oskar Denarius, 5/1 Molly Cat, 11/2 Vaguely Spanish, 13/2 Khee Society, 7/1 Mandy´s Boy, 9/1 Pat´s Legacy, 10/1 Hallings Comet, 12/1 Shalianzi.
usual Vaguely Spanish
speculative Pat’s Legacy

No real outsiders here so this race is not strictly a system race. 3rd and 6th in the betting forecast gives us a reasonable spread.