Racing Testing Lab

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

6 210 kempton Betting forecast: 11/10 Polly Peachum, 3/1 L´unique, 11/2 Clara Mc Cloud, – faller 1.27
8 255 ludlow Betting forecast: 6/4 Buddy Love, 3/1 Royal Palladium, 6/1 Shinooki, – 6th 1.28
7 355 ludlow Betting forecast: 10/11 Bengali, 7/2 Belle De Londres, 8/1 Coco Des Champs, – 5th 1.88
8 335 wolves Betting forecast: 13/8 Alba Verde, 11/4 Rutherglen, 7/1 Underwritten, – 2nd 1.36
12 405 wolves Betting forecast: 9/4 Laura B, 5/2 Sky Steps, 5/1 Excelling Oscar – 2nd 1.83

Today

7 130 lingfield Betting forecast: 13/8 Sinndar´s Man, 11/4 Malanos, 6/1 Dormouse,
4 200 lingfield Betting forecast: 4/6 Southway Star, 3/1 Browns Brook, 7/1 Arbeo,
6 230 lingfield Betting forecast: 8/13 Hel Tara, 2/1 Millicent Silver, 10/1 Grace And Fortune,
5 250 sedgefield Betting forecast: 13/8 Brother Scott, 2/1 Carters Rest, 4/1 Pistol Basc,
8 110 sthl Betting forecast: 6/5 Wu Zetian, 9/4 Whispering Star, 8/1 Lendal Bridge,
5 210 sthl Betting forecast: 5/4 Chilworth Bells, 6/4 Invincible Wish, 6/1 Reet Petite,