Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
10 230 hexham Betting forecast: 4/9 Cyrus Darius, 7/2 Captain Hox, 8/1 Chain Of Beacons, 1st 1.04
8 300 hexham Betting forecast: 2/5 Onenightinvienna, 11/4 Kingswell Theatre, 9/1 Fromdusktilldawn, 1st 1.05
9 525 sthl Betting forecast: 2/1 Sugar Train, 5/2 Sir Will, 7/1 Maximus Maridius, 2nd 1.26
10 400 wolves Betting forecast: 5/6 Maxwell, 7/2 Cooper, 10/1 Blues Dancer, 1st 1.14
6 435 wolves Betting forecast: 2/1 Gabrial The Terror, 9/4 Thomas Blossom, 9/2 Sunblazer, 1st 2.08
Today
10 715 kempton 15/8 Ya Hade Ye Delil, 3/1 Honourable Action, 5/1 Simple Verse,
10 220 sthl Betting forecast: 1/2 Tijan, 7/2 Legal Art, 7/1 Qaffaal,