Racing Testing Lab

Each way betting – a background How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd . By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour. Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus. 1) we select only from 8/9 runner races 2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection .

A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place. 3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here. Make sure you check the place onlyterms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

540 downroyal Betting forecast: 7/4 Catwilldo, 9/2 Acroleina, 6/1 Missile Command, 13/2 Rigid Rock, 8/1 Boughtforasong, 8/1 Staccato Wolf, 8/1 Well Done Me, 14/1 Western Seaboard, 25/1 Serious.
usual Rigid Rock – 8th 11/1
speculative Well Done Me – 4th 9.83 win

4th in the betting for me today and the last horse before the double figure odds horses.
710 nmkt Betting forecast: 7/4 Atlantic Affair, 4/1 Dream Tune, 4/1 Robins Pearl, 6/1 Must Have, 10/1 Mistamel, 12/1 Jonnie Skull, 25/1 Dynamite Dixie, 25/1 Norwegian Reward.
usual Robins Pearl  – non runner
speculative Mistamel – 6th 11.59

3rd in the betting for me, it could have been Dream Tune. Mistamel is the speculative . A hope the 2 25/1 shots don’t place so we have a 6 horse race for 3 places.

A pity I did not know Robins Pearl was a non runner as we could have nicked the winner today!
240 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 9/4 Sir Note, 9/2 Umoristic, 5/1 Auto Mac, 6/1 Osorios Trial, 7/1 The Yank, 10/1 Sleeping City, 14/1 Ovilia, 16/1 Northern Oscar.
usual Umoristic  – 5th 4.8 win and 1.72 place
speculative Sleeping City – 1st 8.53 win and 2.86 place

2nd in the betting and a hope he can take advantage if 1st in the betting does not perform. I opted for Sleeping City here as the 3rd last horse in the betting.

Nice winner at odds lower than the betting forecast price.
730 york Betting forecast: Evs Crystal Zvezda, 3/1 Pamona, 6/1 French Dressing, 8/1 Sound Reflection, 16/1 My Spirit, 16/1 Tea Blossom, 33/1 Hundi, 50/1 Russian Punch.
usual Pamona  – 3rd 3.6 win and 1.37 place
speculative Sound Reflection – 8th 16.85

A listed race so a worry the front 2 dominate proceedings. 2 clear outsiders reduce the competitive field and I think at 3/1 Pamona could place at reasonable odds. 4 horses under 16/1 and I went for the biggest priced as a Speculative selection.

We got the favourite beaten but it was French Dressing and not Pamoma who actually took advantage. What a pity as I sometimes choose 3rd favourites in the betting forecast.

Today

210 newcastle Betting forecast: 5/2 Street Duel, 5/2 Stylish Boy, 9/2 Airton, 6/1 Be Kool, 6/1 Good Intent, 10/1 Rock On, 25/1 Lord Mcguffy, 66/1 Onefourseven.
usual Airton
speculative Rock On

Another race and another potential 2 favs clogging up 2 of the placed. I must stick with these races though as it only takes the front 2 to falter and we are in with a chance .
355 newcastle Betting forecast: 6/4 Wor Lass, 7/2 Exclusive Contract, 6/1 Frosty The Snowman, 6/1 Noble Reach, 10/1 Omid, 10/1 Prostate Awareness, 20/1 Jebulani, 20/1 Roughlyn.
usual Exclusive Contract
speculative Omid

I opted for the obvious 2nd favourite today to take advantage if Wor Lass had too much cheese and chips on the Toon last night. The speculative choice could be Omid or Prostrate Awareness so is a “hit and hope”.
715 salisbury Betting forecast: 5/2 Ice Lord, 4/1 Holland Park, 5/1 Regal Miss, 5/1 Tap Shoes, 7/1 Top Of The Art, 8/1 Outrage, 10/1 Daydream Believer, 25/1 Candy Val, 25/1 Oat Couture.
usual Regal Miss
speculative Outrage

Regal Miss or Tap Shoes are obvious usual selections. I opted for the former, for no rhyme or reason. Outrage as the speculative choice is ok for me. Hope the 2 outsiders don’t place allowing us a decent probability chance of success.

225 wexford Betting forecast: 2/5 Georgia On My Mind, 11/4 Faseeha, 16/1 For Goodness Sake, 20/1 Pure Drama, 33/1 Crocosmia, 33/1 Mary Kate, 33/1 Moonlight Art, 33/1 Red Riding Hood, 66/1 Mizpah.
usual Faseeha
speculative For Godness sake

We saw the last time a shortie faltered we got a double figure odds payout. Same again please.
405 york Betting forecast: 15/8 Point Of Woods, 7/2 Reputation, 4/1 Back To Bond, 9/2 Brilliant Vanguard, 8/1 Penwortham, 20/1 Never Give In, 25/1 Mister Mischief, 33/1 Athollblair Boy, 33/1 Rupert Boy.
usual Reputation
speculative Penwortham

Reputation or Back to Bond my usual contenders. I went with the former. Penwortham picks himself. Now if these outsiders run as outsiders we really will have a solid shout at a place/winner today.