A 100% strike rate I think yesterday with the shortlist of the shortlist . Those of you with April’s What Really Wins Money, this is my look at finding bets for April’s article
Here is an excerpt of April’s article on “creating value from short prices”
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1)Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2)Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 – lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
David Ferrer was the only failure yesterday and I remember thinking that 1.2 was a little high for this 1.06 shot in the 2-0 set betting market, given Nadal at a few points lower was priced 1.1 for 2-0 wins. Ferrer must have been carrying an undisclosed injury
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
A 100% strike rate of placed only horses yesterday for my shortlist.
The shortlisted horses placed yesterday, including Tiradia at a very nice 1.68 under Tony McCoy
500 beverley
Betting forecast: 8/11 Night Party, 11/4 Cayjo, 5/1 Notebook, 10/1 Tarrafal.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Caygo is an interesting newcomer worth noting in the betting but ready preference is for the form claims of NIGHT PARTY, whose debut second at Newmarket last August reads very well in this lesser context and though not quite so good next time, even that form is fair enough (the two immediately in front of her then won next time out). [Mel Cullinan]
A simple 4 horse race for 2 places. You have a 50/50 chance of success in the to place only market
————————————————-
555 Brighton
Betting forecast: 9/4 Uncle Dermot, 5/1 Gaelic Silver, 6/1 Bloodsweatandtears, 6/1 Whitby Jet, 8/1 Queen Aggie, 12/1 Keene´s Pointe, 12/1 Siouxperhero, 12/1 Tax Reform, 12/1 Toymaker.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNCLE DERMOT (nap)’s record at this trip on slow ground stands up to scrutiny and there was nothing wrong with his recent comeback third off the same mark. Gaelic Silver will find things tougher back into handicap company, while Whitby Jet will find this sharp enough unless they go hard up front.[Graham Wheldon]
Price gapper here in a handicap.
————————————————-
540 Newcastle
Betting forecast: 4/5 G Force, 5/1 Soul Brother, 11/2 Saakhen, 10/1 Lord Clyde, 16/1 Carnamoney, 20/1 Fujin, 20/1 Storyline, 25/1 Mossy Marie, 25/1 Reet Thicknstrong, 33/1 Spinner Lane.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: G FORCE shaped with plenty of encouragement on his Newbury debut six months ago and, although he was eventually outstayed in the mud over 6.5f, it was a performance that suggested a maiden should be a formality. He is taken to make a winning start for new connections, while Soul Brother and Saakhen look best of the rest.[Paul Smith]
Quite a price gapper but a 5 furlong maiden race and a 181 day absence for G Force is off-putting.
—————————————————
500 Tipperary
Betting forecast: 4/6 The Great War, 7/2 Blackbriar, 13/2 Dick Whittington, 7/1 Lupie, 9/1 Cleveland Street, 16/1 Sauanna Belle, 20/1 Bluerince Lady.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ballydoyle took this last year with subsequent Norfolk Stakes second Coach House and THE GREAT WAR could well follow suit with the prevailing good ground likely to suit the War Front colt. Tommy Stack’s newcomer Blackbriar may prove the main threat. [Alan Hewison]
Aiden O’Brien fav must always be respected. A maiden race though and none of these maidens have had a run out. Also 2 places. So a reputation bet rather than based on any form
————————————————–
705 Tipperary
Betting forecast: 13/8 Lord Adare, 9/2 Killeena House, 5/1 Enjoy Responsibly, 11/2 Roman General, 8/1 Artful Artist, 10/1 Knockrea, 10/1 Texas Tea, 14/1 Our Manekineko, 16/1 Harlekin, 16/1 Two Roses, 20/1 Heartbreak City, 25/1 Keep Swinging, 25/1 Star For Life, 33/1 Lake Field, 33/1 Medinah Gold, 33/1 Roe Your Own Boat, 33/1 Vasco Des Bieffes, 66/1 About Time Thomas, 66/1 Byryan, 66/1 Reign Of Gold.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Given the impression he created when winning a Limerick bumper over Christmas, it was rather disappointing that LORD ADARE couldn’t justify odds-on favouritism back at that venue last month on his hurdling bow. There were still enough positives in that display to suggest he can win a maiden hurdle of this nature and he can give weight away to everything here. Enjoy Responsibly might improve on this quicker ground while Killeena House is another that will have her supporters. [David Jennings]
Davy Russell a solid jockey. Lots of dead wood here and Lord Adare a placer twice.
—————————————————–
210 Warwick
Betting forecast: 6/4 Master Of Suspense, 4/1 Touzr, 5/1 Garraun, 8/1 Dinneratmidnight, 8/1 Stroll On, 8/1 Yankee Red, 16/1 Backstage Gossip, 16/1 Setai, 20/1 Byron´s Gold, 100/1 Island Express.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MASTER OF SUSPENSE has the best form thanks to last week’s fourth at Newmarket and the way he came from off the pace and then rather tied up in the final 1f suggests that this drop back from 7f is a good move. He looks the clear pick, although Touzr and Garraun have shown significant ability on the AW and Stroll On should still be capable of better. Newcomer Dinneratmidnight needs a market check.[Richard Austen]
Price gapper in a maiden. – only 6 horses under 16/1
——————————————————
340 Warwick
Betting forecast: 8/11 Voyageofdiscovery, 11/2 Battle Command, 8/1 Pipe Dream, 10/1 Crafty Exit, 10/1 Old Guard, 14/1 Buckland Beau, 14/1 Crucible, 33/1 Pouncing Tiger, 33/1 Purana.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VOYAGEOFDISCOVERY sets a useful standard here after a good run at Lingfield in February and he can get off the mark at the third attempt. A few of his rivals are open to improvement and Pipe Dream and Crafty Exit might prove best of the rest.[Paul Smith]
Voyage a strong price gapper , albeit in another maiden. 2nd on the all weather as a favourite then in February.
——————————————————–
TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Only Ferrer let us down yesterday and a massive surprise in his home venue.
11am – Golubev v Nishikor ( 1.2) – no head to heads for 60th in the world v 17th in the world
1130am – A Radwanska ( 1.2) v Vinci – 5-1 in head to heads for 3rd in the world v 20th – quite compelling
12pm – Monfils ( 1.23) v Berankis – no head to heads but a nice gap in rankings for 24th in the world v 157th in the world.
1pm – Pavlyuchenkova v Sharapova( 1.26) – 1-1 in head to heads for 25th v 9th in the world – last 2 matches have been 3 setters
230pm – A Ivanovic( 1.26) v Goerges – 4-1 in head to heads and 12th in the world v 94th in the world.
6pm – Nadal ( 1.03)v Dodig 2-0 in sets yesterday and a hope Nadal does the same today 2-1 in head to heads for 1st v 37th in the world.
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Shakhtar won at halftime for a nice 1.2+ odds bet and PSG won 1-0 with an 89th minute goal ( thanks guys – left it a tad late though!)
5pm – Orkla v Rosenborg – 1.02 away. -Norwegian cup and Rosenborg should win at halftime, and score 3+ goals
805pm – Benfica v Juventus – 2.66 – now this may be an opportunity to use one of our lays here. I would be keen, for instance, to lay Benfica/benfica in the halftime/fulltime market if priced at 6 or lower. I’ll check the markets for other possible lays too in this Europa league match
SHORTLIST
500 beverley
Betting forecast: 8/11 Night Party, 11/4 Cayjo, 5/1 Notebook, 10/1 Tarrafal.
Faith in the market? 4 horses and 2 places so Night party ( or the live fav) to place only? 50% chance of success
——————————————
340 Warwick
Betting forecast: 8/11 Voyageofdiscovery, 11/2 Battle Command, 8/1 Pipe Dream, 10/1 Crafty Exit, 10/1 Old Guard, 14/1 Buckland Beau, 14/1 Crucible, 33/1 Pouncing Tiger, 33/1 Purana.
There are a lot of maidens today and to be honest they give me the shivers! Here though we have a price gapper who has had a run as recently as february where he ran well. A big price gapper here and a hope the odds are sugggestive of a place at least if not winning
———————————————–
1130am – A Radwanska ( 1.2) v Vinci – 5-1 in head to heads for 3rd in the world v 20th – quite compelling
Clear in head to heads and as I said initially ” quite compelling”
———————————————-
12pm – Gael Monfils ( 1.23) v Berankis – no head to heads but a nice gap in rankings for 24th in the world v 157th in the world.
This massive gap in the rankings is always encouraging. If being ultra cautious, I’d prefer to see Gail Tildsley as a top 20 player.
————————————————
230pm – A Ivanovic( 1.26) v Goerges – 4-1 in head to heads and 12th in the world v 94th in the world. Again the head to heads look very compelling. If being ultra cautious again, I would have loved to see Ivanovic as top 10 as I feel top 10 players are a level above even 11th/12th
————————————————
5pm – Orkla v Rosenborg – 1.02 away. -Norwegian cup and Rosenborg should win at halftime, and score 3+ goals
You might have to use a bookmaker here as Betfair is totally illiquid. I’d look at HALFTIME, HALFTIME/FULLTIME / OVER 3.5/4.5 GOALS as potentials.
————————————————-
805pm – Benfica v Juventus – 2.66 – now this may be an opportunity to use one of our lays here. I would be keen, for instance, to lay Benfica/benfica in the halftime/fulltime market if priced at 6 or lower. I’ll check the markets for other possible lays too in this Europa league match
benfica/benfica halftime/fulltime is about 5 to lay. I refer you to the lay section of the article above where laying a selection at odds of 5 is the same as backing a selection at odds of 1.25
————————————————————————-
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Only Ferrer let me down yesterday in the shortlist of the shortlist which is why I have left Nadal alone today as he goes deeper into the tournament.
1130am – A Radwanska ( 1.2) v Vinci – 5-1 in head to heads for 3rd in the world v 20th – quite compelling
Clear in head to heads and as I said initially ” quite compelling” – 5-1 head to heads so the probability is that a FULLY FIT ( unlike Ferrer!!!) Radwanska should continue her dominance over vinci
12pm – Gael Monfils ( 1.23) v Berankis – no head to heads but a nice gap in rankings for 24th in the world v 157th in the world.
This massive gap in the rankings is always encouraging. If being ultra cautious, I’d prefer to see Gael Tildsley as a top 20 player.
I am not taken by Monfils as a consistent player ( see Dolgopolov- beating nadal one week, crashing out 1st round the next week) but the rankings gap is very compelling.
I have not done indepth research as I cannot spend all day on these selections.
805pm – Benfica v Juventus – 2.66 – now this may be an opportunity to use one of our lays here. I would be keen, for instance, to lay Benfica/benfica in the halftime/fulltime market if priced at 6 or lower. I’ll check the markets for other possible lays too in this Europa league match
benfica/benfica halftime/fulltime is about 5 to lay. I refer you to the lay section of the article above where laying a selection at odds of 5 is the same as backing a selection at odds of 1.25
A chance on a Benfica/Benfica HALFTIME/FULLTIME lay at 5.00 which pays out the same as a 1.25 shot. I know benfica are rock solid this season domestically but Juventus really are also ultra solid.