Each way betting – a background

How do I go about my each-way selection process? In this post you will see a list of races which all have one thing in common. They are all 8/9 runner races as this is the shortest field which pays out for horses finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd .

By selecting an 8/9 runner race, you immediately put the probabilities of selecting a horse to finish in the top 3, in your favour.

Remember that your objective is to find a horse to finish in the top 3, with a winner being an obvious bonus.

1) we select only from 8/9 runner races

2) we make 2 selections. The first is called the Usual selection . A usual selection is a horse who is near the head of the betting forecast and who looks like an obvious selection to finish in the first 3 at least. We then make a speculative selection. This horse is likely to be a bigger price and is selected because horse racing is inherently unpredictable and races are won by other -than the market leaders We want to be able to cover a bigger priced horse who might surprise.

On the 3rd May 2014, I selected just such a horse, Run with Pride, and he won at Betfair SP odds of 142, and paid 12 to place.

3) which brings me to my 3rd point. Use Betfair Sp for your win and place only bets . Why? Well Run with Pride won at odds of 142 using Betfair SP, and returned at only 33/1 with the bookmakers.

This is the background behind the selections you will find here.

Make sure you check the place only terms at www.betfair.com. Some races may only pay out on 2 places. We want to see 3 places as it increases our probabilities of getting a return.

Yesterday

 720 ballinrobe Betting forecast: 5/4 Riverside City, 2/1 Grand Partner, 8/1 Eight Till Late, 10/1 Nevskij, 10/1 Up The Hill, 16/1 War Of The Pennys, 20/1 I Hear Trouble, 33/1 Crowley.
usual Up the Hill  – faller
speculative War of the Pennys – 2nd 32.06 win and 4.22 place

Note – this is a race with 2 strong favourites who might clog up the places, so a selection such as War of the Pennys has a poor probabilituy of placing if the front 2 dominate. BUT if one, or both of the front 2 falter, we have a great chance of nabbing a biggie. So a risky race to open with.

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610 carlisle Betting forecast: 4/5 Teruntum Star, 5/1 Chances Are, 6/1 Crystal Wish, 6/1 Signoret, 20/1 Poppy In The Wind, 20/1 Yukos Flyer, 25/1 Invincible Wish, 33/1 Ship Canal, 50/1 Ty Ty.
usual Crystal Wish 4th 20.63
speculative Poppy in the wind – non runner

Note – traditionally the ideal race we should focus on. An odds on favourite, massive price gapper and 3 outsiders hopefully reduce the field to those left. Poppy in the wind is more speculative than I would normally choose. I expect the race to be dominated by the horses sub 20/1 in the betting forecast, but hey, you never know.

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200 musselburgh Betting forecast: 9/4 Testa Rossa, 4/1 Staffhoss, 5/1 Violent Velocity, 6/1 Ellaal, 8/1 Act Your Shoe Size, 8/1 Royal Straight, 16/1 Declamation, 16/1 Jordaura.
usual Ellaal  – 2nd 4.8 win and 1.63 place
speculative Royal Straight – neck 3rd 16 win and 3.31 place

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400 muss Betting forecast: 5/2 Flash City, 7/2 Bunce, 4/1 Salvatore Fury, 6/1 Noodles Blue Boy, 8/1 Jumbo Steps, 10/1 Space Artist, 16/1 Perfect Blossom, 20/1 Gottcher.
usual Noodles Blue Boy  – non runner
speculative Space Artist – 1st 5.48 win and 1.83 place

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430 muss Betting forecast: 5/4 Maoi Chinn Tire, 7/2 La Bacouetteuse, 7/1 Strobe, 8/1 Voice From Above, 12/1 Claude Carter, 14/1 Sohcahtoa, 20/1 Jebulani, 20/1 Jim Tango.
usual Voice from above  – 6th 4.91
speculative Claude Carter – 3rd 14.51 win and 3.45 place

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500 muss Betting forecast: 5/2 Running Reef, 4/1 Ixelles Diamond, 6/1 Live Dangerously, 6/1 Orwellian, 6/1 Shamaheart, 7/1 Mysterial, 10/1 Rioja Day, 33/1 Berbice.
usual Shamaheart  – 1st 7.29 win and 2.56 place
speculative Rioja day – 8th 16
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415 sthl Betting forecast: 6/4 Elsafeer, 4/1 Dark Energy, 5/1 Mubrook, 6/1 Air Chief, 6/1 Kayfton Pete, 6/1 Travis County, 50/1 Recway Lass, 66/1 Spithead.
usual Air chief  – 6th 28.83
speculative Travis county – 5th 13.5

A better day yesterday with 2 winners, and 4 2nd/3rd spots. That’s the 3rd day now we’ve had a 2nd at over 30 odds. Will they consent to get their head infront?
Today

220 catterick Betting forecast: Evs Summer Times, 11/2 Siren´s Cove, 15/2 Elevator Action, 10/1 Bombay Mix, 10/1 Kayo Koko, 12/1 Muhaarib Al Emarat, 12/1 Strategise, 20/1 Keen Move, 20/1 My Specialbru.
usual Elevator Action
speculative Kayo Koko

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350 catterick Betting forecast: 7/4 Patrona Ciana, 3/1 Mysterial, 7/2 Cape Of Hope, 7/2 Scrutiny, 14/1 Mount Cheiron, 50/1 Bitusa, 50/1 Bix, 50/1 Lady Dancer, 50/1 Rosie Hall.
usual Scrutiny
speculative Mount Cheiron

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520 catterick Betting forecast: 9/4 Elizabeth Coffee, 5/2 Woodstock, 4/1 Tinseltown, 11/2 Maillot Jaune, 10/1 Charles De Mille, 14/1 Royal Trooper, 20/1 Ely Valley, 20/1 Sea Cliff.
usual Maillot Jaune
speculative Royal Trooper

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645 leicesterl Betting forecast: 2/1 Running Wolf, 2/1 Sweet Alibi, 7/1 Vodka Time, 8/1 Kalon Brama, 8/1 Tara´s Treasure, 12/1 Chanceuse, 14/1 Enfys Hud, 100/1 L´es Fremantle.
usual Vodka Time
speculative Chanceuse

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200 lingfield Betting forecast: 6/4 Bannister Bell, 9/4 Saumur, 13/2 Toast Of Newbury, 10/1 Cahar Fad, 12/1 Edge Of Heaven, 12/1 Little Miss Mighty, 20/1 Ragtime Dancer, 25/1 Cool Choice, 33/1 New Abbey Dancer.
usual Toast of Newbury
speculative Little Miss Mighty

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230 lingfield Betting forecast: 5/2 Diminutive, 3/1 Shamrock Sheila, 7/2 Josie Joe, 4/1 Itsindebag, 10/1 Paris Carver, 16/1 Dark Symphony, 25/1 Blackasyourhat, 33/1 Tribal Diamond.
usual Itsindebag
speculative Paris Carver

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850 sandown Betting forecast: 2/1 Perfect Muse, 9/2 Alpha Delta Whisky, 9/2 Tom Sawyer, 5/1 Welease Bwian, 7/1 Stellarta, 12/1 Aye Aye Digby, 14/1 Jiroft, 14/1 Lujeanie.
usual Tom Sawyer
speculative Aye Aye Digby