Here is an excerpt of April’s article on “creating value from short prices”
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 – lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
None
Today
220 catterick
Betting forecast: Evs Summer Times, 11/2 Siren´s Cove,
Big price gapper, 3 places and a maiden, 2nd on debut
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday’s Results
None
TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Today’s possible selections – Please note that these times seem to be indicative only. It is extremely frustrating when I’m doing my trebles, having to wait until some hours after the allotted time for the match to start.
1030am – Dmitry Popko v Blaz Kavcic – 1.02 Blaz – 1168th v 81st
11am – Damir Dzumhur v Giovanni Lapentti – 1.21 Dam 122nd v 440th
1130am – Andreas Beck v Andriej Kapas – 1.24 Beck – 118th v 512th
1130am – Shuai Peng v Ilona Kremen – 1.11 Shuai – 50th v 252nd
1230pm – Marton Fucsovics v Hans Podlipnik-Castillo – 1.33 Mart – 160th v 223rd
4pm – Igor Sijsling v Marin Cilic – 1.13 mar – 76th v 22nd 0-3 H2H
430pm – Yann Marti v Marcel Granollers – 1.33 Gran – 212nd v 28th
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Today
11am – Tokushima v Urawa – 1.23 away
530pm – Heimstetten v 1860 Munich – 1.26 away
6pm – Numancia v Atl Madrid – 1.33 away
630pm – Wolfsberger AC v Chelsea – 1.35 away
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
None
Today
1030am – Dmitry Popko v Blaz Kavcic – 1.02 Blaz – 1168th v 81st – a whopping rankings gap but I doubt we’ll ever see anything approaching 1.2 odds for the 0-2 sets win to Blaz.
430pm – Yann Marti v Marcel Granollers – 1.33 Gran – 212nd v 28th -suspiciously high odds for such a gap in rankings. An illiquid market maybe? Or is this not Marcel’s surface?
630pm – Wolfsberger AC v Chelsea – 1.35 away – Friendlies cannot be trusted but Chelsea came from 2-0 down to win 2-3 against AFC Wimbledon and that might swing it.
A terrible day’s choices today, all with holes in them. I hope youfind your 1.2, 1.25 and 1.33 shots.