A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

9 555 sandown Betting forecast: 11/10 Kassia, 7/2 Fashionable Spirit, 8/1 Our Joy, 1st 1.12
8 700 sandown Betting forecast: 11/10 Yorkidding, 7/2 Game Show, 7/1 Singular Quest, 8/1 Havisham, 9/1 Sleep Easy, 11/1 Shadow Rock, 16/1 Duke Of Sonning. 1st 1.41
8 230 wetherby Betting forecast: 11/8 Barneys Honour, 6/4 Double Double, 7/1 War Lord, 3rd 1.18
6 415 wetherby Betting forecast: 4/5 Go Odee Go, 13/8 Sign Manual, 14/1 Bentons Lad, 1st 1.24

 Today

7 315 bath Betting forecast: Evs Countermand, 6/4 Rib Reserve, 10/1 Provato,
6 710 muss Betting forecast: 11/10 Postulant, 9/4 Sur Empire, 5/1 Gathurst,
14 720 worcester Betting forecast: 7/4 Awesome Rosie, 5/2 Pulling Power, 8/1 Popular Opinion