Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
7 130 fakenham Betting forecast: 6/5 Bon Chic, 11/8 Haatefina, 12/1 Inca Dove, 3rd 1.21
5 300 fakenham Betting forecast: 6/4 Snowell, 2/1 Home For Tea, 6/1 Midnight Chorister, 2nd and 3rd 1.8
8 330 fakenham Betting forecast: 6/4 Mr Grey, 5/2 Go Odee Go, 6/1 Gioia Di Vita, 1st 1.32
10 340 lingfield Betting forecast: 6/4 Outrath, 3/1 Murray Mount, 5/1 Kay Sera 1st 1.34
10 1220 thurles Betting forecast: 9/4 Black Zero, 3/1 Golden Ticket, 6/1 Easyondeye, 1st 1.54
Today
4 100 bangor Betting forecast: 5/4 Stone Light, 15/8 Mister Grez, 5/1 Free World
9 230 bangor Betting forecast: 8/11 Coologue, 5/2 Ma Du Fou, 6/1 Tara Mac,
8 240 wolves Betting forecast: 10/11 Sir Billy Wright, 15/8 Summersault, 9/1 Nelson´s Pride,