I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

 

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you to employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

745pm – Bayern Munich v Porto – 1.37 home – 6-1

Preston were emphatic with a 1-3 win away and I wish I’d put it up as an official bet as 1.37 + 1.67 would return one of the lost stakes for those *****ing useless dutch *****s at the weekend. I do hope you backed Preston yourselves.

And I hope you took the warning re over 2.5 goals in the Barca match. 2-0 , game over.

I think it will be an interesting exercise to see what kind of a profit we’d have had if all of the strong mentions were put into an acca. The strike rate of course would be lower but the potential winning returns higher. I’ll start working on this from way back in November to date. Let’s hope it’s good news.

Today

Today’s Champions League is really difficult. Defensively strong Monaco take on a Juventus side with a less than appealing pedigree in this competition. Real Madrid v Atl Madrid is a tight one. Atl Madrid do actually remain unbeaten in ( from memory) 6 consecutive head to heads.

Elsewhere Celtic are away to Dundee, and meet Dundee again at home on 1st May. Dundee have a 1-1, 2-1 loss record v Celtic this season. Celtic are certainly not expected to lose today but I simply cannot discount the draw.

Dundee are undefeated in 7 home matches, scored in their last 16 at home, and see both teams scoring in 81% of home matches.

Celtic are undefeated in 7 away matches, scoring in their last 13 away matches.They do have 12 wins in their last 14 matches and 11 clean sheets in 15 matches, albeit they have conceded in their last 2 matches.

That fecking draw! With both teams scoring it seems likely that 1-1 will appear at some stage in the match ( unless Celtic take a 0-2 lead).

For earlier kick offs, Shandong Luneng take on Binh Duong in the Asian Champions League. 2-3 the last time these 2 met saw Binh Duong take a shock 2-1 lead. Great match to trade. Shandong are 1.14 with home advantage but both sides are dire in this competition. No thanks Missus!

Tennis.

This is something I want to incorporate but I cannot devote too much time. The research is time consuming and if this was a paid-for service rather than a voluntary effort on my behalf then I’d be 100%.

I will list the “obvious” in order to shorten the work load. World top 20 men and World top 10 women and World Top 1 Transgender ( Serena Williams).

1230pm – Albert Montanes v David Ferrer  – 1.05 away Given this is in Spain, what chance a 0-2 set betting punt on David Ferrer? 1.2 for the 2-0 set betting is more appealing. 5 consecutive straight sets wins for David Ferrer includes 3 sets in the French Open. On only 1 occasion did Montanes post more than 3 games in a single set. This should be a cruise for Ferrer today.

215pm – Nicolas Almagro v Rafael Nadal  – 1.15 away – Rafa in Spain! Yes Please. 123rd v 4th in the world.

Head to heads are 11 to 1 in Nadal’s favour. Rafa has dropped at least a set in his last 3 clay matches. Almagro seemed to have a by in the first round here at Barcelona.

230pm – Yuliya Beygelzimer v Angelique Kerber  – 1.12 away –  150th v 14th in the world. 2-0 to Kerber in head to heads. 1.37 for 2-0 sets is nice and high ( relatively speaking for bankers). Beygelzimer has only managed a 1st round in the last 2 hard court tournaments. The last 2 head to heads were 2007 and 2009 which are not recent enough to be relevant. Those 2 matches did see a tie breaker. But it seems that these players are in different spheres now.

Kerber has been relatively poor in the BNP Paribas losing 0-2, winning 2-1 Miami Open, then 1-2 loss to Kuznetzova.

From the tennis today I’d take Ferrer to win 2-0 at 1.2 and Nadal to win match odds only at 1.15. Kerber should win with ease too but I would only take the match odds here at 1.12. I don’t trust the ladies. Novarro dropped a set yesterday and she is top 10 now.

This is a ” thinking out loud” at the moment. I don’t want to commit these as official bankers . It will be interesting to see if I can keep the required near 90% strike rate . Set betting wins to nil carry greater risk. A player is not seeking to win 2 sets to nil. The player is seeking to win the match. Key distinction.