Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
16 1225 thurles Betting forecast: 7/4 As De Ferbet, 5/2 Aerlite Supreme, 6/1 Drumlee, 2nd 1.36
6 335 thurles Betting forecast: Evs Bellshill, 13/8 Attribution, 4/1 Total Recall, 1st 1.13
Today
5 130 ascot Betting forecast: 13/8 Killala Quay, 2/1 Puffin Billy, 4/1 The Skyfarmer,
7 205 ascot Betting forecast: Evs Jolly´s Cracked It, 6/4 Clondaw Banker, 7/1 Wilberdragon,
7 910 dundalk Betting forecast: 5/4 Enzani, 7/4 Kadayma, 11/2 Intense Debate
8 1240 ffos las Betting forecast: 11/8 Missed Approach, 11/8 Vintage Vinnie, 5/1 Lewis,
6 155 haydock Betting forecast: 7/4 The Brock Again, 5/2 Oscarteea, 11/2 Huff And Puff,
4 340 haydock Betting forecast: 11/8 Abidjan, 6/4 Midnight Shot, 7/2 Dean´s Walk,