A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

 Yesterday

9 340 chepstow Betting forecast: 11/8 Alcatraz, 2/1 Hala Madrid, 13/2 Henryhudsonbridge, 1st 1.25
5 850 chelsm Betting forecast: 5/4 High Secret, 5/2 Cerutty, 5/1 Flemish School, 1st 1.31
6 540 dundalk Betting forecast: 5/4 Birdcage, 9/4 Miss Phillyjinks, 6/1 Grant Of Approval, 1st 1.15

 Today

6 230 lingfield Betting forecast: 4/6 Wonder Laish, 7/4 Royal History, 8/1 Smart Motive,
14 630 sligo Betting forecast: 7/4 Palm Sur, 5/2 Mollyanna, 7/1 Court Challenge,