Racing Testing Lab

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

4 405 kempton Betting forecast: 5/4 Dusty Blue, 6/4 Mecado, 9/2 Aqlette, 2nd 1.07
17 110 newbury Betting forecast: 5/4 Communicator, 5/2 Beast Of Burden, 15/2 Hannah Just Hannah, 2nd 1.21
4 215 newbury Betting forecast: 11/10 Easter Day, 13/8 Walkon, 6/1 Tinker Time, 3rd 1.45
10 245 newbury Betting forecast: 7/4 Value At Risk, 11/4 Jack Frost, 5/1 Foryourinformation, 1st 1.31

Today

9 1250 exeter Betting forecast: 11/8 Winter Walk, 9/4 Nitrogen, 6/1 Brandon Hill,
7 120 exeter Betting forecast: 11/8 Lochnagar, 3/1 Pull The Chord, 11/2 Shammick Boy,
6 220 exeter Betting forecast: 7/4 Midnight Belle, 5/2 Alder Mairi, 5/1 Definitely Better,
5 415 kempton Betting forecast: 11/8 Geordan Murphy, 2/1 Lindart, 7/2 Bush Beauty
11 445 kempton Betting forecast: 5/2 Dreaming Again, 5/2 Warbond, 6/1 Rezwaan,
6 100 sthl Betting forecast: 11/8 Pat Mustard, 15/8 Whisky Marmalade, 5/1 Blue Burmese,
7 130 sthl Betting forecast: 11/10 Miniskirt, 6/4 Laika, 9/2 Roxy Hart,
8 140 towcester Betting forecast: 7/4 Kincora Fort, 5/2 St Johns Point, 9/2 Kleitomachos,