From the responses I have so far, it seems the vast majority of respondents have plans over the holiday weekend which I think will preclude me from a live chat on Saturday and Sunday. There won’t be the numbers there, I’m sensing.
I will do as much research as I can for those of you who want to trade, and will try to be available on twitter to update on really solid DRT’s and those stats you can profit from. A look at yesterday though and we get the impression we are entering the “funny” part of the season, where teams desperate for points are suddenly nullifying their superior opponents! Take a Bow Crystal Pulis and Sunderland!
Panathanaikos at 3pm did what was necessary to prolong the Greek cup match into extra time with a 1-0 win.
Jablonec beat Sparta Prague 3-1 and I’m not so sure a 1.94 shot in Sparta can be labelled as a red hot favourite?
I told you the Russian Cup was an untrustworthy vehicle sso no surprise then that 1.61 shots CSKA lost 0-1. Pick your battles!
And a great battle was Hameenlinna from Division 3 against Mariehamn from Division 1 in the Finnish Cup. Hameenlinna from Division 3 took the lead, and Mariehamn equalised eventually, then went 1-2 up, before the division 3 side equalised. The Division 1 Mariehamn inevitably won 2-3.
Germany u19 were as reliable as ever with a comfortable enough win. HJK won as they liked in the Finnish cup. A red card was the redlight for red bull to win with ease. It was the Austrian Cup and not the league, so a note there that we need to make sure we know which competition a team is playing in.
Galatasary were layable at odds on. Bursaspor took a 2-0 lead. Did anyone then have a change of heart? Galatasary went steaming back to win 2-5, helped in part by a red card. If you did lay Galatasary pre-match, you’d have still profited if trading.
In Sweden, Hacken won as a 1.5 shot at home should, The Mjallby match was marred by a red card. Mjallby took the lead and Norrkoping eventually equalised.
Malmo won 1-2 away at Orebro.
Quite a good stat uncovered in the PAOK match, that they had not lost 2 consecutive legs in the Greek Cup, indeed they won 1-0 v Olympiakos. This is an example of simply taking a stat and having faith in it.
Leagues of 10 eh? Thun won 0-5 away at Grasshoppers ( 1.75 favs) and pretty much underlines the dangers of 10 team leagues.
On to Bayern Munich and it was normal service resumed with a 5-1 win – 2 goals before halftime as well., as is expected of a 1.08 shot.
Club Brugge won their Belgian league play-off match and Basel won 4-2 , another 1.68 shot at home, in a league of 10.
And so to the main event….
We had a scenario in the Everton match of an away side going 0-2 up. Time to lay them. Everton consented to score the next goal. A 2-3 final result ensured Everton scored 2 again but what of Palace? Winning away for the 1st time against top 10.
Manchester City took the lead and it seemed to be game over. Then 73rd and 83rd minute Sunderland goals ensured a 1-2 lead going into the dying embers. Surely not? And indeed City equalised in the 88th minute and pretty much ended their title hopes.
Those keeping faith in Monaco not losing a cup match, would have layed Guincamp who took the lead. Monaco drew to have yet another extra time match.
And to the stat of all stats. Guess what? Barcelona and Real Madrid both scored and the match was over 2.5 goals. Fancy that!!
Benfica continued home dominance with a 3-1 win v Porto.
On to today
For Reference matches
12pm – Marienlyst v Lyngby – 1.44 away – this is a Danish 2nd division match and there are stats at www.soccerstats.com so I will research this match if I have time. Suffice to say it is put on hold in the “For Reference” section given the league type.
3pm – Novi Pazar v Crvena Zvezda – 1.39 away – this is a serbian division 1 league match
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430pm – Plzen v FC Brno – 1.24 home – this is a czech cup match between 2 division 1 teams and in head to heads Plzen have won 1-3 away twice in 2013 in the league.
Standout stats
- Plzen
- only 3 defeats in 21 matches and one was against Lyon.
- Only 2 defeats in 25 home matches came against Manchester City and Bayern Munich. It takes a special team to beat Plzen at home it seems
- this is a 2 legged cup match today, and Plzen conveniently lost their last cup match 2-3 having secured a 1-0 home win previously.
- 3 wins in their last 4 home matches were wins to nil. A recent 3-4 defeat was against Jablonec
Brno
- unbeaten in their last 5 in all competitions
- only 3 wins away in 30 matches, all to nil and 2 were 0-1. That’s their only hope today you’d think. A shut out and nick a goal.
- 5 clean sheets in their last 6 in the cup but hard to weigh up their opponents as compared against Plzen
- 4 wins in 6 aways punctuated by clean sheets
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Plzen have an eyecatching record at home, and Brno ain’t no Man City or Bayern! This should be a good drt were Brno to score first, although I would acknowledge their wins have come to nil so maybe an insurance on the 0-1 and then back Plzen/lay Brno?
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For Reference
430pm – Rostov v Luch-Energiya – 1.43 home
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6pm – FC Vestsjaelland v FC Copenhagen – 1.67 away
Standout stats
- this is a danish top flight match and on a quiet day I’ll research it.
- tight in 2013 with a 1-1 and a 1-0 Copenhagen win.
- 9th v 3rd. A league of 12 teams is really not satisfactory here but I’ll plug on. Vest are 2 points from relegation. Copenhagen have a game in hand over top but are 10 points away. They will remain 3rd ( only on goal difference) with a win today
Vestsjaelland ( Vest)
- 5 draws in their last 7 matches includes 3 0-0’s which is a high percentage .
Profitable in-play opportunities
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For Reference
645pm – Locarno v FC Vaduz – 1.48 away
645pm – Lugano v Wohlen – 1.63 home
645pm – St Gallen v Lausanne – 1.64 home
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730pm – Eintracht Frankfurt v Hannover – 2.04 home
Standout stats
- Hannover are unbeaten in 2013 head to heads with a 0-0 and a 2-0.
- Only 1 win for Frankfurt in 6 head to heads
- this is 11th v 13th – the relegation zone more of a worry for Hannover
Frankfurt
- only 5 defeats in 15 matches, included the likes of Bayern Munich, and Dortmund and more recently 2 top 5 sides away.
- 5 wins in their last 7 home matches and 2 consecutive wins to nil.
- have failed to score in only 7 matches all season
- all bar 2 of Frankfurt’s defeats this season have come against teams above them in the league.
- only 2 wins, but 3 draws, at home to teams below them.
- 4 0-0’s at halftime at home
Hannover
- only 2 wins in 11 matches.
- only 4 clean sheets all season
- 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
- very poor away from home with 12 defeats, a draw and 2 wins.
- did beat Frankfurt 2-0 earlier this season – the exception?away wins have come against teams they beat, and drew, at home
- 3 0-0’s at halftime away from home
- no away 0-0
- consistently conceding away ( 17 and 15 conceded 1st and 2nd half)
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Well, Hannover are clear in head to heads, but with 12 away defeats, are more likely not to win away than win. They did beat Frankfurt at home, and their away wins have come against teams they beat and drew at home.
- No away 0-0 for Hannover, so lay it low and late.
- Frankfurt should score at some stage.
- We can make a cogent argument for both sides. Frankfurt are the form side currently. Hannover the head to head side and have beaten Frankfurt this season.
- My angle here would be to look for Hannover to concede at some stage ( only 4 clean sheets and Frankfurt failing to score in only 7 matches). And to tie in with that, do not expect a 0-0
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730pm – Palermo v Reggina – 1.53 home
Standout stats
- this is a seria B match and on a quiet day is worth looking at.
- Palermo are unbeaten in head to heads although there were a few in Seria A. The most recent in Seria B was a 0-2 Palermo away win, 9th and 89th minute goals so perhaps a gloss put on it by the last minute goal
- this is 1st v 21st ( of 22) and last night we saw the unique characteristics of top v strugglers at this time of the season. So fair warning! Add to the mix the fact that Palermo are 13 points clear and we might have a case of a dead rubbber – I’ll confirm that. Reggina are still not relegated. But it looks like they are nailed on at least for a play-off if not getting automatically relegated.
Palermo
- there are 8 matches remaining ( 24 points in total) so although Palermo can afford the odd slip up, the title is not theirs yet. This should keep them from a Bayern/Olympiakos like bout of can’t be -arsedness.
- unbeaten in 15 matches, 3 of Palermo’s 5 defeats came in their first 6 matches of the season.
- Palermo are unbeaten in 10 at home
- 7 wins in their last 8 in all competitions.
- they have failed to score in only 5 matches all season.
- only defeats at home have come v 2nd and 3rd.
- All wins v 17th and lower at home.
- Palermo have scored in their last 9 matches
- 9 0-0’s at halftime at home is 53% of home matches
- Palermo start scoring at home in the 16th minute really and end matches really strongly too, so confidence in a goal if they are conceding/or 0-0 coming to the 75th minute
Reggina
- only 1 win in 11 matches, but 3 2-2 scorelines in their last 4 matches suggests a fighting mentality.
- In the last 4 matches, the last goal has been timed at 90th minute, 88th minute, 87th minute and 78th minute.
- only 5 clean sheets this season
- 2 consecutive 2-2 away draws.
- against top 8 away, Reggina have lost the lot and only scored 1 goal in 6 matches. Dare I remind you of a certain points-seeking Palace who lost to all top 8 yet won yesterday. Surely not today too?
- 7 0-0’s at halftime away
- pretty consistent concessions – 14 first half and 15 2nd half away.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the Palermo management must remind the team that a 13 point lead is not a title winning lead. This will keep Palermo honest.
- Solid form overall and against bottom sides at home should see a win.
- Both teams have high 0-0 halftime stats so don’t be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime.
- Reggina have lost to all top 8 away scoring only 1 in 6 matches but a recent 0-3 away win v 15th is a glimpse of them at their best.
- This looks Palermo’s to lose.
- Look for late action if this is 0-0 or Palermo are 0-1 down very late on. There have been late goals in Reggina matches.
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For Reference
730pm – Standard v Lokeren – 1.5 home
Those crazy Belgians and their crazy play-offs. Note Standard are 1.5 shots and playing at home. I cannot really research this match and I cannot get angles in here. Standard were the best team in Belgium over the season proper. Will that continue today?