The new jumps season must be upon us, what with it being St Leger weekend at Doncaster.
This marks the winding down of the flat season and the beginning of the National Hunt season proper.
And that’s one of the matters coming into focus in September’s issue of What Really Wins Money. Our very own Statman focuses on sires this time around – and not just any old sires, no sir. Sires for National Hunt horses.
His conclusions are amazing. Hope you’ll get a chance to read up on it! Also in September’s What Really Wins Money newsletter, I take an in-depth look into dobbing, which is something I introduced you to here in a recent eletter.
The process is something I’m working on. It’s all in the research. The idea is to consistently find horses who run well during a race without necessarily winning. Dobbing is all about Backing at high odds pre-race and Laying at half of those odds in-play, guaranteeing a return if those odds are hit.
The free resources available to you are impressive and covered in full in September’s WRWM.
This month I’ve come to the conclusion that, when Laying horses, we’re not necessarily trying to Lay odds on shots to make a profit. We can Lay mid-range odds horses and still make a damn good profit. I’ve got two Laying strategies that back me up!
The Patriarch this month looks into Backing multiple horses in one race. And there’s the usual round up of tipsters and my own betting ideas. Truly an edition to warm your cockles as Autumn arrives.
Anyway where was I? Ah yes, talking about the St Leger meeting. You know the drill by now. Let’s take a look at those Past Winners to help uncover the trends…
I’ll focus on tomorrow’s top class races.
Saturday 10th September
14:00 Doncaster
This is a six runner race for 2 year olds and quite frankly there seems little need to look further than the favourite.
Five of the last seven winners have been favourites. Trainers Charlie Appleby and Richard Hannon have won the last five runnings between them. D’bai and Majeste therefore are the two to consider if you think these trainers will continue to dominate.
14:35 Doncaster
Chaaarrrrgggeee! A 5 furlong, 22 runner cavalry charge!
Eight of the last ten winners have been at double figure odds. If the favourite is short enough, he could be Layable.
The biggest priced winner has been at 20/1. I would look to horses between 12/1 – 20/1 here.
Take a chance at three random horses between these odds and Back them each-way. You might get lucky. This is the historical odds range for winners.
15:10 Doncaster
This is a Group 2. Some classy animals here.
Eight runners means three places so think each-way betting if you are attracted to any horse at odds of 4/1 or higher.
What strikes me about the last 10 years’ results is that Aiden O’Brien as trainer has not won this race. He has two runners today.
The last three winners have been at odds of 9/2 or less. Two were 7/2 and 7/2 is a perfectly acceptable each way price.
Only three favourites have won in the last 10 years. I get the feeling second favourites are good here for each-way betting.
For me, I would be excited if I see an Aiden O’Brien horse second favourite tomorrow. The markets are not yet up.
Cougar Mountain and the Happy Prince are the O’Brien horses. He is too good a trainer not to have won such a race for 10 years!
So, look for second favourites I’d say here, and each-way.
15:45 Doncaster
The St Leger itself. Nine runners means what? Yes, each way betting is advised as three places give us a payout.
Although two favourites have won in the last three runnings, favourites are not the norm over 10 years.
Andrea Atzeni is on a hat-trick in this race and does not have a ride, alas.
I think an 8/1 horse each-way has a great chance. Three of ten winners were 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1 – that’s a third of winners in the last 10 years.
I hope you enjoy the St Leger meeting tomorrow and find a winner or two. My Past Winners point more towards horse’s odds, rather than horse’s names, to back.
Have a great weekend!
