Euro 2016 is all but over…
… and there was me thinking it would be a Wales v Iceland fairytale final.
Alas, ‘twas not to be. I think Portugal have bored their way to the final. Heck, they didn’t even win any of their group stage matches.
They bored a better Croatia to tears before nicking an extra time winner.
They kept Poland to 1 – 1 and won on penalties and then finally came to life in a good 2 – 0 win against Wales.
The French have scored 2-2-0-2-5-2 goals, so their tactics are obvious and rather Keegan-eque. We will outscore you!
The only time the French conceded more than one goal in a match was when they already led Iceland 5 – 1!
Taking the last match played by either side, the earliest goal was a penalty (the last kick of the first half) for France.
I do think that this could reasonably be a game of second half goals (if indeed there are to be goals).
It’s the first time in 2 finals that Spain have not appeared in the final, so taking any cues from past finals may not help us.
I would personally have to side with the French who so ably kept an excellent German side quiet. Germany were, to these eyes, the better side.
I will look to lay the 0 – 0 halftime score (go to Betfair, Halftime Score market and lay the 0 – 0) after 25 minutes if the final is 0 – 0 after that time. We will be laying at shorter odds.
A ready alternative is to back 0 – 0 pre-match and ‘cash out’ at halftime, if we are lucky enough to see a 0 – 0 at halftime.
Portugal obviously have an able defence, but I will be laying Portugal if they take the lead during the final. The French consistently manage at least 2 goals. A team like Poland have a recognized world class striker and managed to score against Portugal. What’s to stop Griezmann filling his boots?
Those will be my angles into the final. Good luck if you are playing.
Newmarket-tastic
There’s some World Class horse racing at Newmarket this weekend and I’ll take my usual look at past winner trends which I hope will point us to the winner.
Friday 15:45 Newmarket
The Cherry Hinton is a Group 2 race with 10 runners.
5 of the last 7 winners have been at 4/1 or lower so the market tends to get this race correct.
Nasami interests each way for me at 7/2. As the 2 errant winners were 14/1 and 20/1, I am going to back, small stakes only each way, Nations Alexander and Somebody to Love in case we get a replication of a high priced winner.
These are 2 year old horses so anything could happen!
Friday 16:15 Newmarket
The Falmouth stakes sees 7 runners now instead of 8 runners. This tells me that, at Betfair, the place only market will still offer 3 places. As an each-way bettor, I like to create my each-way bets at www.betfair.com. Bet 1 ½ stakes in the 3 places market. Bet 2 ½ stakes in the win market.
Only 2 favourites have won the last 10 runnings. Usherette is the favourite here and does look compelling alas, but if following the trends, the horse is laying at a current 1.8 in the win only market.
Amazing Maria would be my each-way alternative here.
Let’s head on over to Newmarket on Saturday.
Saturday 16:00 Newmarket
This is the first group race of the day, a group 2 race.
10 runners again suggests each way betting for this one.
The only 2 favourites to have won in 10 runnings came 2 years and 4 years ago.
Richard Hannon and Richard Fahey have had 2 winners each in the last 4 runnings of this race.
Mr Scaramanga therefore must enter calculations today and I will back him each way.
16:35 Newmarket – The July Cup
2 consecutive short priced favourites (2/1 or under) have won this race. The favourite this time is likely to be 5/1 so that trend may not continue.
I would look to back Limato and Air Force One here each way, as 2 horses 12/1 or under. We rarely see winners at odds of higher than 12/1 and I think the favourites run may end too.
17:10 Newmarket – the Bunbury Cup
Richard Fahey has won 3 of the last 5 runnings of this race which suggests it is a targeted race.
Heaven’s Guest and Growl must be of interest each way.
The winner tends to come at between odds of 10/1 – 16/1 and that has been a consistent trend. Growl is within that Price band. If you wanted a speculative each way play, then look at horses between 10/1 and 16/1 and back 2 of them each-way.
And to end it all… FORE!
The Scottish Open Golf grabs my attention this weekend and I would be looking to lay any short priced leader of the Tournament going into the Final day. It only takes one errant shot playing Links golf to make the player look like a carbon copy of me playing golf i.e. Keystone Cops.
So do look out for a short priced favourite on Sunday in this tournament. The shorter the odds the better. Lay them and hope the winds howl.
Have a great weekend!