I hope you enjoyed the intermittent ‘Market Movers’ coverage for Royal Ascot at my Twitter page @whatreallywins.
I hope it advertised the fact that when there is high-class racing, the betting markets become much more ‘readable’ and accurate, because there is so much liquidity in the markets (compared with, say, a wet Tuesday at Cartmel).
The highlight on Friday 23 June was in the selection of first and second Permian and Khalidi in the 15:05 Ascot race. We also had a third-place Take Me With You at 20/1.
On Thursday, the highlight was third-place Harbour Law at 33/1.
On 21 June, we had a 40/1 second in Aljazzi, and a winner in Heartache, but heartache that Aljazzi didn’t fecking win!
On 20 June, Rajasinghe was the winner at 11/1.
In a competitive race meeting, the ideal is each-way betting. So many close ones but they paid out well for the place.
My next big Market Mover Twitter meeting will be Glorious Goodwood in August. In the meantime, get the Robinson’s Barley Water out (other barley waters are available), strawberries (other fruits are available) and Pimms (other alcoholic drinks are available). It’s only blinking Wimbledon from 3 July onwards.
I will be covering Wimbledon for members of www.drt.club for the duration.
Here are some pointers for this year from the Outright Winner market.
I cannot see Novak Djokovic winning Wimbledon this year – unless he has a sudden return in enthusiasm, which has been sadly lacking.
Dominic Thiem at odds of 60 is very appealing in the Outright Winner market. I backed him in the French Open and his odds halved. So note this as a ‘cash out’ option. We are pinning our hopes on Thiem going deep enough in the tournament for us to see the odds drop (and indeed near-rivals fall by the wayside).
He was dire in Turkey last week, losing to 246th in the world, but I see that as an aberration. (I will bet my strawberries on it!)
Marin Cilic has been a model of consistency and at odds of 23 we might see a good drop in his odds.
Andy Murray lost first round at Queens and has been vulnerable in the clay court season and run up to Wimbledon.
Rafa Nadal is too short for me. He is the clay king but more vulnerable on grass.
The women’s winner market is intriguing with the return of Petra Kvitova, who does look superb despite the lay off. The market has inserted her as 6.2 favourite.
In the absence of Serena Williams though, we get a hugely competitive women’s tournament. Johanna Konta is improving, but at 13 in the Winner market is too short for me. We have world Number 4 Dominica Cibulkova at 100. Yes, she has been in poor form, but I see value if she can see past the first two or three rounds.
World Number 1 Kerber is taking tentative steps back into tennis after a retirement in Madrid. She was poor in losing two matches in a row, but at Eastbourne has shown some fight. If fit, she appeals at 20.
Put it this way: you will rarely be able to back World Number 1 at 20 and World Number 4 at 100, so I am on board.
Kvitova at 6.2 is a little short, but she is likely to go deep into the tournament despite her long absence.
Good luck however you play Wimbledon. DRT members, see you on Twitter from the 3 July onwards! Have a great weekend!