Hankies at the ready…
This week I have been tweeting for the Cheltenham Festival @whatreallywins and I must say I have thoroughly enjoyed shouting the house down, as selections such as Nietzsche and Barra and Whisper looks like they’re going to nail me a double-figure return only to get run out of it in the finish.
I’ve picked a few winners along the way. On Day 1, Tiger Roll and Tully East ended the day well. I also selected two 33/1 fourth and fifth placers in the 4.10 pm race. Quite a feat as the first three were all sub 7/2 (and don’t forget those enhanced places!)
Highlights on Day 2: Whisper and Belles Hill finishing second and third in the 2.10 pm race, Scoir Mear fifth and 20/1 (remember those enhanced places and each way betting!), Bless the Wings second at 10/1, my old pal Nietzsche third at 12/1 (neck-neck third!), and a win with Fayonagh.
Day 3 was a toughie and had I had my wits about me, I would have remembered that Messrs Walsh and Mullins had yet to find a winner and consequently gone on to back all of their horses. I’d have cleaned up!
Sub Lieutenant was close to another double-figures win but finished second, Nichols Canyon won and was one of my five short-listers who (world’s smallest violin playing in distance) I decided not to pick!
Thomas Crapper finished fourth for me, and saved my flushes (groan!) and Barra second at 12/1 brought the Kleenex out in the next race. Premier Bond was one of my selections in the last on Day 3 and he finished third.
There were so many good runs from selections who finished out of the places that I might employ in-play trading in future. Some horses I selected went from 46 odds down to 6 and ended nowhere. Others dipped below 2.00 odds and still did not place.
Horses like Barra hit a low of 2.18 in running. A bit of a waste considering he was backed at 15.5 Betfair SP. I got the each way pay out but did not maximise returns! Bakmaj was another horse I backed each way at 17.94. He hit a low of 4.5 in play and ended up finishing 14th.
There are a few lessons to be learned from Cheltenham. One lesson is to avoid being drawn into having a bet on every race. I have had to do this by necessity on Twitter, but we face a thankless task in trying to pick the winner of a race, 17/2 the favourite featuring 26 runners in a handicap! Do what Andrew David does – choose your battles!
I am employed ‘market reading’ this week. What is market reading? Here is an example of that race where Nichols Canyon won and I dismissed him from my shortlist of three horses!
The bookies like to give us clues. Some come off, others don’t. I have noticed throughout Cheltenham though that the horses showing these patterns tend to run well.
Nichols Canyon’s pattern of 11/1, 10/1, 11/1 is a pattern I look for, as is Shaneshill’s
Jezki’s pattern caught my eye. The odds vary between 15/2 and 7/1 consistently. West Approach was the last qualifier although I should have dismissed his odds given he went from 25/1 up to 33/1
Nichols Canyon went on to win.
Do note these patterns at the live odds section of www.sportinglife.com. They can give you pointers, particularly at a Festival as high-profile as Cheltenham, and as liquid as Cheltenham, to those horses the bookies may fear for whatever reason.
I don’t know the rhyme or reason why these patterns tend to show up in a good running for a horse, but it happens a lot and I have had so many near misses that, had they won, I would have been able to convince you that this pattern-seeking is a great method of race-reading in a live environment.
Here’s another example. Which horses would you shortlist?
Linger, for me, is too obvious. Candy Bung I noted, as with Dodgy Bingo, and Nietzsche – remember him?
Neitzsche hit 1.25 in-play before finishing third. Dodgy Bingo and Candy Burg were optimistic at 80/1 and 50/1 and Linger was ‘too obvious’: what we call in the trade a ‘steamer’.
This is a fascinating addition to your armoury and when used with the 16/1 System it can allow you to shortlist those horses who might secretly run better than their odds.
I’d like to gather more examples of this pattern-seeking in the live market and pass it on to you through www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk if you are a member.
See you on Twitter today @whatreallywins where I attempt to do the impossible and pick winners in huge field handicaps, and the Gold Cup of course.