We love you, Seamie, we do!
Nice work from Seamie Heffernan last weekend as US Navy Flag romped home for messers Heffernan and O’Brien. It was not the first big-odds coup these two have landed and it will not be the last.
Odds of 15.5 for the win will do nicely, not to mention a small Brucey Bonus for the place. Guess who came second to US Navy Flag in the Middle Park Stakes? Another O’Brien horse at 25/1, beaten only half a length. O’Brien won on a big-priced horse, you will recall, in the Epsom Derby.
From Heffernan to hoofing a footy!
It is International Break at the moment. I tend to dust off my Correct Score permutations as we see minnows play giants in matches which tend to produce comfortable wins to nil.
If you can ascertain that a match will mostly like be a win to nil, then I would suggest the use of Correct Score permutations.
Let me recount the strategy. It comes from the WRWM archives but is perfectly applicable during these World Cup qualifiers.
During this International Break, my main football strategy is the Correct Score strategy. It’s simple really. Go to the football coupon at Betfair and take note of really short-priced selections.
Here’s an example of the real ‘shorties’ (as I call them)…
• Serbia U19 v San Marino U19 – 1.02 to Serbia u19
• Liechtenstein U19 v France U19 – 1.01 to France U21
• Belgium v Andorra – 1.02 – 1.02 Belgium
Do not dismiss these short-priced teams who are un-backable in the Match Odds market.
• Think goals.
• Think correct scores.
• Think wins to nil.
Look at recent matches: Germany u19 were 1.03-shots against Kazakhstan u19 and won 6-0. Russia U19 were 1.04-shots against Faroe Islands u19 and won 7-0. England were 1.01-shots against San Marino. The final score? 5-0.
You see the pattern? Turn these shorties into a good-priced bet by looking at a Goals bet or a Correct Score to Nil bet. The examples I used were of the U19 teams, but watch out for matches with huge gulfs in class from the World Cup qualifiers, and U21 matches being played this week.
You could include these matches in goals accumulators or Correct Score permutations.
How to exploit these Correct Scores for potential huge returns
Try out the following permutations once you have determined a likely Correct Score based upon these selection processes (and the assumption that these short-priced international teams will win at around a 4-0 starting point).
Permutation 1 : I am recounting some matches from the past which serve as great examples for this strategy. Ukraine is playing Andorra at home. Ukraine is, quite rightly, very short-odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1/40. This signifies goals. This will be Match One. Russia is playing Liechtenstein. The Russians are quoted as 1/100 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be Match Two.
• Match One: 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 4-1, 5-0
• Match Two: 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 4-0, 5-0
We write down a variation of scores which surround the 4-0 to hopefully account for any difficulties in scoring. I always include one score where the minnows score a goal – this, I’m afraid, is where luck comes in. My options would be 3-1 or 4-1.
On the betting slip, we write ‘Perm five results for each match for a Correct Score double = 25 bets’. If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and because Correct Scores tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice-paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.
Permutation 2 : For this Correct Score permutation, we will focus predominantly on those matches which could be tight, but which have a favoured side.
I have chosen for this illustration 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0, and these will form the basis of our second permutation.
• Match One: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1
• Match Two: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1
• Match Three: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1
Write the above on your betting slip or in your long-list fixed-odds coupon with the instructions to the bookmaker to ‘Perm 3 scorelines for each match for a winning treble = 27 bets’.
For the above permutation, you could easily have selected England vs Slovenia here, as 1) England had scored two goals in each of their last eight matches; and 2) Slovenia had lost 1-0 in each of their last two away matches. Another team who tend to be favourites and tend to win by these kinds of scorelines is Ireland.
I hope these permutations give you some ideas on how to go for the really big-odds returns. Enjoy the International Break!