I thought I’d look at Saturday horse racing in isolation this eletter.
Saturday racing looks very competitive. The weekend is here. The number of meetings increases dramatically because there are more customers.
What about favourites?
Do favourites struggle during these competitive Saturdays? Let’s take a look at the last 10 years’ worth of stats.
I’m going to look at favourites on a Saturday over a number of different criterion.
Distance
Watch out for 4 1/2 mile races on a Saturday. Only 8 races in 10 years, but a 20 point profit to Betfair SP ( BSP )and 255% Return on Investment (ROI)!
A simple angle?
8 and 9 furlong races on a Saturday contributed 112 points profit to BSP when backing favourites on a Saturday over the last 10 years.
For layers, the big distances on a Saturday look competitive.
25, 28 and 29 furlong races produced 28.70 points profit, 20.82 points profit and 37.72 points profit.
With 8 furlongs in a mile, 25 furlongs is 3 miles and 1 furlong. 28 furlongs is 3 miles 4 furlongs. 29 furlongs is 3 miles and 5 furlongs.
Long distance is good for layers on a Saturday.
Race Type
Saturday’s favourites tend to profit with all-weather racing and Hurdles. 94 points profit to Betfair SP over the last 10 years but a marginal 2.12% ROI.
23 points profit for Hurdles over the 10 years suggests a focus more on all-weather racing if you back favourites on a Saturday.
Chase races are the layer’s focus on a Saturday if wanting to take on favourites. 61 points profit.
Courses
The top 5 Courses where favourites profit on a Saturday ( there are a lot more – I limit to 5 ), are
- Wolverhampton – 69.60 points profit BSP
- Newmarket – 59.38 points profit BSP
- Naas – 50 points profit BSP
- Aintree – 41.44 points profit BSP
- York – 36.44 points profit BSP
A special mention for Fakenham. It seems Fakenham rarely race on a Saturday but when they do, favourites have won in 12/15 races.24.37 points profit and 162% ROI
Cheltenham, Down Royal, Catterick and Warwick are meetings where the Saturday favourites are better layed.
31, 30, 27 and 26 points profit for the layer.
Number of Runners
3 of the top 4 profit makers for favourites on a Saturday occur in 19, 20 and 22 runner races. But the pattern breaker is 6 runner races – 87 points profit to BSP on a Saturday for favourite backers.
15 and 17 runner races have a 16 and 22 point profit for layers of favourites on a Saturday.
Lastly, let’s see if any trainers thrive on a Saturday when their horses are favourites.
Ian Williams, Keith Dalgliesh, Dean Ivory and Charlie Appleby are the top 4 trainers who profit on a Saturday when their horses are favourites. Honestly though there are a huge number of trainers whose horses profit when favourites on a Saturday.
The top 5 trainers for layers on a Saturday are Ralph Beckett, Tom George, Sir Michael Stoute, Dan Skelton and Alan King.
Some big names there whose favourites do not profit over time on a Saturday.
I hope there’s something there for you to think about on a Saturday.