There’s only one race on everyone’s mind this weekend, and that’s the Grand National.
Yes, that sure-thing betting medium that is a 30-fence, 40-runner, 4-mile Handicap Chase. The sure way to riches… not! I cannot leave this eletter, surely, without a look at this race.
Where do we start? With the stats.
I love this one. Seven of the last 11 winners of the National, have won at odds of 25/1 or higher, so it seems any favourites or market leaders may be worth swerving. But it is also important to remember that only five horses have won the Grand National at odds of 40/1 or higher.
Stick to horses at between 25/1 to 40/1 therefore – that seems to be the logical conclusion here.
We have covered Past Trends in the, erm, past, and this is where you can begin to shortlist the 40 runners.
Did you know that all of the winners had previously won a race at a distance of 3 miles+?
Twenty-three of the last 27 winners of the National were aged nine or over. That stat in itself should help you to narrow down the field. There are 12 runners (including reserves) that can be discounted.
At www.racingpost.com you can open up the National Race card and list the age and weight columns in numerical order.
As to weight, 21 of the last 27 winners carried 10 stones 12 pounds or less. That’s 12 horses over that weight that we can discount already.
Race fitness? 26 of the last 27 runners ran less than 56 days ago. The days-since-last-ran can be found next to the horse’s name on the race card at www.racingpost.com. That’s 15 horses there that can be discounted.
So let’s look at what’s left…
Odds of between 25/1 to 40/1 – we need to see the market on the day.
Age – discount numbers 28, 7, 3, 32, 42, 26, 1, 9, 20, 13, 44, 43.
Weight – discount numbers 1 to 12 inclusive.
Race fitness – discount numbers 1, 7, 8, 11, 17, 21, 19, 22, 25, 27, 32, 28, 33, 40 and 43.
Now, what are we left with?
We are left with horses numbered 14, 15, 16, 18, 21, 23, 24, 26, 29, 30, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38 and 39.
We have current odds to work with. So let’s look at horses between the odds of 25/1 and 40/1. This leaves 14, 15, 21, 26, 34, 37.
Now that’s far more manageable. Six short-listers. The horse’s names in numerical order are:
- Regal Encore
- Vieux Lion Rouge
- Pleasant Company
- I Just Know
- Captain Redbeard
Choose two or three if you wish of these selections and back them each-way.
Or you could of course us my Gran’s National system: open the race card, get a pin out, stick it in said race card and back that horse with a princely 50p each way.
Enjoy the National!