No, my girlfriend is not going to bash me with her handbag after finding my collection of Rachel Riley from Countdown memorabilia, I am of course talking about Mayweather vs McGregor.
The betting markets are rife with opportunities and are totally one-sided. The professional boxer Mayweather is expected to beat the UFC fighter McGregor, and past history does point to these fights going the way of the professional boxer.
What markets interest me? Well, I want to cover a number of markets to have a better chance of winning.
In the Round Betting market, laying Mayweather Jr Points at odds of 4.4 covers 26 other outcomes. I’ll take some of that!
What minute will the fight end in? That’s a 37 ‘runner’ market. So laying the shortest odds outcome (to go the distance) will cover 36 other outcomes.
My next markets are Mayweather knocked down and win – laying no at 1.17; and McGregor knocked down and win – laying McGregor at 1.08.
If these two go the distance, then backing Mayweather Jr Round 11-12 at 18.5 and McGregor Round 11-12 at 40 (odds likely to rise as market gets liquid) appeals to me.
Laying Fight to Go Ahead Yes at 1.02 is well worth doing. Minimal liability, maximum reward. You never know, anything could happen in such a high-profile event.
This is a unique event. Rarely do we see professional boxers taken on by UFC Fighters whose wrestling skills and kicking skills will be negated. If you watch McGregor fights, he finishes his opponents ‘from above’, i.e. generally from the floor. This is a whole new ball game for him.
I have opted solely for what I see as value lays. They are either short odds, or one lay covers a multitude of markets.
Good luck with your play. Elsewhere there is some absolutely high class racing throughout the weekend. I’ll take a quick look at the Past Winners for tomorrow’s racing from the standout races.
26th August 2017
14:10 Goodwood – Group 3
There has been three 5/1 winners in the last five races. Favourites have won three of the last six runnings but for me the value must be in a 5/1 horse backed each-way. It seems the market is accurate.
15:20 Goodwood – Group 2
Only two winners in 10 matches at odds of 5/1 or higher yet again suggests a focus at the head of the market: 4/1, 9/2 horses each way appeals to me.
15:55 Goodwood – Listed Race
Only two winners in 10 years at higher than 4/1. It seems the market gets these listed races at Goodwood correct. So, here, I would have to focus on a 4/1 horse each way.
13:55 York – Group 3
Only three favourites won in the last 10 years. With the highest odds winner at 9/1, I would
personally side with a 6/1 or 7/1 horse and back it each way.
15:00 York – Group 2
Biggest odds winner in 10 years was 16/1 but the second-highest odds winner in 10 years was 8/1. Only two favourites have won. I would back a 6/1 horse each way here.
16:10 York – Listed Race
2007 saw a 25/1 winner, 2009 saw a 14/1 winner, and 2015 saw a 33/1 winner, so these 2 year olds can serve up the odd big-priced winner. I would avoid favourites here. Generally 3/1 to 6/1 horses have won recent races. I would be mischievous here and back a 14/1 and 33/1 horse each way, just in case these 2 year olds provide us with another shock.
16:25 Newmarket – Listed Race
15/2 and 11/1 winners in the last 2 years ended a run of two consecutive winning favourites. Those were two of only three winning favourites in 10 years, so I urge an avoidance of favourites. I would back a 7/1 horse each way here, quite near to the recent 15/2 and further enough away from the head of the market.
18:10 Windsor
No favourite winner in 10 years in this listed race suggests laying any short-priced favourite. A 3/1 or 4/1 horse each way for me here. Seven of the last 9 winners have been between 11/4 and 9/2.
I hope you find these Past Winner trends useful. I’ll be using them tomorrow: note, I do not specify a horse; I back a horse based on its odds. A very unique approach.
Have a great weekend, enjoy both the fight and the top-class racing.