Attack those shorties! No, this is not my call to arms against the likes of Ronnie Corbett, Wee Jimmy Krankie et al; it is just something I have noticed in the past few weeks that you might want to stick in your notebook.
The shorties I speak of are 2 year old horses running in maidens.
I don’t know if it’s the time of the year or if this is a potential horse racing betting system that can be developed into a lay system, but let me share my idea with you and see if we can develop it over the coming weeks.
A new horse racing betting system: look for maidens
These examples should give you an idea of what I look for in maidens.
210 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sahafh, 7/2 Sally Friday, 11/2 Undulant Way, 7/1 Port Hollow, 10/1 Janicellaine, 12/1 Desert Shine, 16/1 Delphi Dream, 20/1 Gainsboroughs Best, 33/1 Last Act, 50/1 Miss T, Mrs Neat.
DIOMED VERDICT: UNDULANT WAY was behind Sally Friday recently but might be able to progress past her.
Here is why I would lay 2/1 favourite Sahafh
1) Reared up in the stalls last time out. Temperament issues
2) Soft ground at Warwick and Sahafh has never run on soft ground
3) 2 year old maiden filly, and fillies can be temperamental as
pointed out in 1)
4) This 2 year old filly has only had 3 runs
Result : Sahafh is 9th of 10
210 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Parlour Games, 9/4 Jalors, 5/1 El Torbellino, Good Boy Jackson, 16/1 Blue Ronnie, 33/1 Copt Hill, Diamond City, Smirfys Emerald, 66/1 Willow´s Wish, 100/1 Good Faith.
DIOMED VERDICT: PARLOUR GAMES shaped well on his debut, is open to improvement and, unlike his main market rival Jalors is proven in soft ground.
Here are some reasons again to lay the favourite
1) Soft ground (heavy in places) at Newcastle
2) Parlour games has run on soft, but has only had one run (and is being judged solely on that run, a bit premature don’t you think?)
3) Another 2 year old without much experience.
Result : parlour games comes 5th and Jalors comes 6th (the first and 2nd favourites)
245 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Red Riverman, 11/2 Blue Deer, 6/1 Marked Card, 17/2 Chief Of Men, 11/1 Madame Solitaire, 16/1 Captain Brown, Handicraft, 33/1 Honkers Bonkers, Safe Haven, 50/1 Last Act, 100/1 Nice Chimes.
DIOMED VERDICT: RED RIVERMAN (nap) has the form on the board and can repel the potential improvers in the line-up if this sharper course does not inconvenience.
Here are some reasons to take on the favourite Red Riverman
1) “Wins if handling course” says the Racing Post. Brighton is a race course with undulations and these 2 year olds, we must remember, are still learning and thus liable to making mistakes under new conditions
2) Form of 32 for Red Riverman is good but will Brighton’s unique course bring problems?
Result : Red Riverman comes 5th
620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Florestans Match, 5/1 Latin Lashes, 8/1 Cuddly, 12/1 Ma Quillet, Silca Conegliano, 16/1 My Love Fajer, 20/1 Barbieri, Sirens, 33/1 Duquesa, 50/1 Urban Kode, 100/1 Majestic Ridge,
DIOMED VERDICT: FLORESTANS MATCH, runner-up on her last three outings, can finally get off the mark.
Possible reasons to oppose?
1) Florestans Match is a 2 year old making his all weather debut at Kempton
2) Form of 3222 means the price will be short for the layer
3) Another 2 year old meeting new race conditions (where previously 2 year olds have met soft ground, this 2 year old is meeting artificial surface for the first time)
Result : Florestans Match comes 4th
What do all of the above races have in common?
1) These races feature exclusively 2 year olds
2) These 2 year olds are, on occasion, market leaders based only on one or 2 runs (and this is a bit presumptuous isn’t it?)
3) These 2 year olds are generally meeting new conditions for the first time, be it soft ground, all weather surface for the first time, or a course like Brighton with undulating features.
All of the market leaders meeting these new conditions lost, and a few were actually unplaced.
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Where do we go from here?
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Like the each way method I mentioned last week (8 runner jumps races) we can focus, on this occasion, on 2 year old maidens with short priced favourites and, as you can see above, look for that one piece of information that may throw up a challenge for these young horses still learning (to remind you, ground changes, course changes, surface changes)
So look out for 2 year old maidens with short priced favourites. Then check if they are against anything new today. Consider laying, or even place only laying (after all the odds will be ultra short)
I’ll keep my eye on the maidens that come up this week and keep tabs on further examples for you.
The above races, I suppose, show that having a flexible lay system (i.e. not based on reams of rules) can pay dividends –looking for lays on a race by race basis rather than a mechanical basis.
TRADING AND ME – A STEEP LEARNING CURVE
This week, as Jessie would say from his shed, I have been mostly focusing on trading and Betfair.
You see, Betfair has invited me to attend a trading course in London which will seek to help me uncover the whole gamut of trading opportunities on Betfair.
So I will be Ryanairing it in a couple of weeks to London.
My trading experience, as you well know, is largely football based, so it will be very interesting to see if there are any horse racing based trading systems that are easily implement-able and profitable of course.
For me, trading has always been a time consuming affair where the returns v time were insufficient for me to consider. But I gave it a go yesterday and made an amazing £44 with a £125 trading bank.
I tried my own trading method which relies on software – I use Fairbot. And I guess this is the first lesson for the newcomer. If you want to trade on Betfair, you must use software rather than trying to faff about calculating everything manually.
Here is one race from yesterday
Admiral Breese * 11.00 23.92 Back -23.92
Admiral Breese * 10.50 25.06 Lay 25.06
Green Army 80.00 1.49 Back 30-Sep-10 17:39 -1.49
Green Army 75.00 1.59 Lay 30-Sep-10 17:38 1.59
Kitty Koo 27.00 4.64 Back 30-Sep-10 17:38 -4.64
Kitty Koo 26.00 4.82 Lay 30-Sep-10 17:38 4.82
Shut Up Shapiro 46.00 2.66 Back 30-Sep-10 17:38 -2.66
Shut Up Shapiro 44.00 2.78 Lay 30-Sep-10 17:37 2.78
*Average odds: X On
Back subtotal: -32.71
Lay subtotal: 34.25
Market subtotal: 1.54
Commission @ 4.55%: 0.07
Net Market Total: 1.47
Yes, I made a whopping £1.47 here but this was a guaranteed return on all horses before the race had even gone off!
How did I do it? Well, I looked for horses that were drifting (i.e. their odds were rising consistently)
How could I see horses were drifting in odds? Fairbot has a price graph for each horse which is a perfect visual aid.
Then I laid a horse and looked to back that horse a tick higher (look at Admiral Breese who I laid at 10.5 and backed at 11 and made a quick return)
What did I learn yesterday? Well, for me, I am suited by lay to back trading.
That is, we lay a horse and look to back the same horse at higher odds to make our trading profit.
This may sound complicated and is my early adventures into trading.
It is something I am keen to explore, that’s for sure. I think I have nailed the football (and any readers wanting any info on trading and footy, then get in touch) but horse racing is brand new.
Football is opinion based trading and horse racing is market led trading, that’s the key difference.
So my first day £44 was excellent but meant involvement in all horse races from 230pm to 6pm.
I will continue with trading as it would seem to be a valuable tool in our betting armoury because, like each way betting, trading can ensure you remain ” in the game” by protecting your betting bank over the long term.
Never fear, dear reader, after I return from Betfair’s trading course in London, I’ll be reporting back to you.
I’m off now to make enough trading profits for a Guinness this evening.