It’s December time! Well, tomorrow at least. The Jumps racing season is with us for the foreseeable future, so over this and other eletters I’d like to share some ‘micro angles’ with you.
This week I am looking at the performance of favourites in five-runner hurdles and chase races. Jumps race cards can see a dearth of runners, but that does not mean that we cannot find a profitable ‘micro-angle’.
I decided to look at UK race courses in isolation.
Backing the favourite in these five-runner races did not bring a profit overall, but a specific focus on race courses yielding some excellent results.
So, if you want a nice and simple profitable favourite-only backing system, here’s what to do…
Your focus will be on handicap only chase and Jumps races.
Look at the 2:25 and 3:35 races above. They are chase and hurdle races, and have the words ‘handicap’ in the title. On the right side, you can see the number of runners.
Kelso, Thirsk, Chepstow, Ripon and Carlisle have between them yielded an 80-point profit from a small sample of races. So there will be few qualifiers (making your life easier), but over time the hope for a solid profit from these five venues.
In the last ten years (the above results are since 1997), Kelso, Carlisle and Ripon still top the profit charts. So you may want to stick with these three and add Ludlow with their 11.85 points profit and 40% return on investment.
So, five-runner fields, Kelso, Carlisle, Ripon and Ludlow have, for the last ten years, produced a total of 48 points profit. From about 200 bets. There’ll be few qualifiers but when there is a qualifying favourite, they tend to perform well at these venues.
If you have any ‘micro-angles’ you’d like me to look at statistically, let me know. Preference would be for All-Weather and Jumps races, as these are prevalent at this time.