Grand Slam tennis is days away. - What Really Wins Money

Grand Slam tennis is days away.

Here’s an article I wrote ( found at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk) on how to approach Grand Slam tennis.

I share with you some key pieces of information that you can apply this US Open

Here are the four key elements I would like you to focus on if tennis trading/betting intrigues you.

  1. Proper Research

Researching a tennis match can be as quick, or as in-depth as you want it to be. There is one website which has all of the information you need: TennisInsight.com. I would recommend that you sign up to the free package. It unlocks elements of the website which we require for research.

I am putting together a tennis guide, and more comprehensive tennis research hints can be found there. At this stage though, your focus should be on:

  • Head to heads. Is one player consistently beating his opponent?
  • The Recent Trends. A great part of the research at com, found in the overview section, shows you which aspects of each player’s game is hot or not and even the player’s recent record when priced up as a favourite or an outsider. Useful information.
  • Recent form in today’s competition. How have the players performed in earlier rounds. Have you noticed any patterns? Consistent five setters? Consistently losing the first set?
  • Recent form on today’s surface. Tennis can be like horse racing. Horses for courses. A primary example of this is Rafael Nadal when he plays on clay. He is very difficult to beat. His clay court form is head and shoulders above any form shown on any other tennis surface.

There are some other research tips and tricks but if you were to just focus on these four, then you will gain a good idea of the health, or otherwise, of the players’ games. The key to research is, as I would term it, to ‘justify the odds’. Is the favourite a worthy favourite?

  1. Grand Slam Tennis is Unique

I hinted at this last week. Exploit that fact. In the men’s game it is the best of five sets only in Grand Slam tennis. Think now how you can exploit that fact? How about:

  • Knowing that any player losing 2-0 sets is still not out of the Tournament!

One further element of Grand Slam tennis which I use to profit from is the early rounds of Grand Slam events. My focus will remain specifically on seeded v unseeded players. If you go to the website of the specific tournament, seeded players are clearly marked. Here is a screenshot below. Rune (7) shows us that Rune is seeded 7th. Cadaux does not have any number and is therefore unseeded.

Quite simply, wait for the seeded player to struggle and Back him at enhanced odds after, say, losing the first set. Know this, all players at a Grand Slam will be giving 110% (to use football manager parlance). 

  1. The Use of Price/Volume Over Time Graphs – Chartists Pay Attention

This is something unique to Betfair and something I would really encourage you to take a look at. It is the Betfair Price/Volume Over Time Graph.

At a tennis match market at BetFair.com you will see small graph icons next to the players’ names in the Match Odds market. Click on this and it brings up the Price/Volume graph. Here is an example:

The above graph tells the story of the match from a player’s odds perspective (I have inserted the directional arrows). The left is the start of the match .So this player began as 1.5 odds favourite. But despite an initially solid start (as can be seen by the odds drop to 1.3) this 1.5 odds favourite struggles, so much so that his odds went through the 1.7 mark, then 1.8 all the way up to 2.00 (evens).

‘Any Chartists in the House, Put Your Hands Up in the Air’

As a D.J./technical analyst might say.

Have you ever dabbled with chart patterns as they pertain to Financial markets? Then tennis might be right up your street. Tennis charts, more specifically these Price/Volume Over Time charts, are ripe for the chart- pattern plucking!

Look at the above graph again. I’ll insert some lines and bring it more to life.

Now, can you chartists spot trend lines, support and resistance lines? You can, if you so desired, trade a tennis match purely via the Price/Volume Over Time graphs.

In the above example, Andy Murray’s odds rarely drop below 1.5, do they?

Can you see the three ‘bounces off’ the 1.5 odds line? This makes 1.5 the key support line in this match. How can you profit from that? Simple. Lay Andy Murray any time his odds hit 1.5 (or you in-play bettors can back his opponent when Murray’s odds hit 1.5).

Similarly, Andy Murray’s odds do not seem to want to budge above 2.00 odds. The graph finds resistance at 2.00. So what do you do there? Why, you simply Back Andy Murray whenever his odds hit 2.00. The intriguing question left by this graph is ‘what happened that last time the odds hit 2.00?’

When Laying at 1.5, you can cash out at 2.00. Conversely, when switching over and backing at 2.00, you can cash out at 1.5. (BetFair.com/exchange/cashout is the link in order to find out more about Betfair’s cash out facility. For you financial traders, it is similar to buying low and selling high, or placing a sell position on a certain share whose price you think will drop, and profiting when /if the price drops.)

At the next Grand Slam, I would advocate that you, if you are so inclined, collect these Price/Volume Over Time graphs as matches develop. You will then have a library of examples to practice with, without risk. Ask yourself a couple of questions as you view the Price/Volume Over Time graph.

Are there any support/resistance lines?

Are there any other chart patterns you can spot? Head and Shoulders appears a lot in tennis (a lot of the players have dandruff!).

Those who are unfamiliar with chart patterns can find a huge range of free tutorials online. Mr. Google is there to help.

Using the principle of ‘delaying’ (which comes from my trading service Delay React Trade) in order to produce the value profits.

This idea is hinted at in the example above. By delaying until Andy Murray’s odds reach 2.00, you are Backing him at far better odds than you would have got pre-match (1.5).

I do hope you will at least consider tennis, and in particular Grand Slam tennis as a great way in which to produce value bets in-play. I ask you to go to my website again, log in and search for ‘Wozza’. There you will see how a 1.04 shot pre-match was backable at odds of 55 in play… and still won the match!

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