Welcome to the Turf Flat season. The double-’ard, built-like-brick-out-houses Jumps horses make way for the cosseted speed balls.
No jumping here, thank you!
Here’s a great starting point for you in the generation of betting ideas for the Turf Flat season. At https://www.flatstats.co.uk/free-horse-racing-systems.html there are three profitable betting strategies for you to get involved in straight away. They claim profit historically, so use these strategies with faith in that claim.
Whilst the system builder costs to join, there are some free elements to this website well worth investigating. Under the free systems part of the website, there are stats for the performance of favourites at today’s race courses, as well as the historical draw bias.
At http://www.drawbias.com/ you can access details on this unique aspect of Flat racing – the draw. Once we get to May and Chester, the effect of the draw will play a huge part in the results of racing.
What Flat racing ideas am I working on? Read on…
- The performance of favourites in Maidens/Claiming Stakes races and Sellers on the Turf Flat. Why? Laying these favourites in these races at odds of 1.5 or lower using fixed liability staking has made a profit for the last two years… on the All-Weather tracks. What about the Turf Flat?
- The performance of favourites in 5-furlong races. Any favourite needs to be on the go from the time he leaves the stalls. In these short sprint races, how vulnerable are favourites? Early indications are that we may have a laying strategy forming. More stats required though.
- The performance of favourites in middle-distance Flat races. By ‘middle-distance’, I am talking about 1 mile 2 furlongs to 1 mile 6 furlongs. I have noticed time and again that these races can be muddling races and not necessarily go the way of the market. Some jockey error is involved (misjudging the run the line). Again, I am recording these races pre-supposing a lay strategy.
- Class 5 handicaps and lower. How do favourites fare in low-class fields? I am open-minded here: is a favourite more likely to win based on the poorer opposition? Or is a favourite in such a poor class of race obvious lay material?
All of these strategies are time consuming in results-recording and crunching the numbers. But this is, for me, the only way that I can find those all-important profitable betting patterns – and share them with you, of course, dear reader!
Do you have any ideas of your own for this Flat season?
Here’s one for the Irish Flat season: a simple stats idea…
The other guys!
There are a few trainer/jockey combinations which were as established as a Xavi/Iniesta, or Laurel and Hardy.
Here are a few: Weld/Smullen; O’Brien/Heffernan; Bolger/Manning; Foley/Halford; Prendergast/Hayes.
These are established trainer/jockey combinations over in Ireland.
But… Watch out when the jockeys ride for ‘the other guys’ – the less well-known trainers in Ireland. Take note of Seamie Heffernan when he rides for other than the might Aidan O’Brien:
To £1 level stakes, Heffernan has simply nailed it for punters when riding for these ‘other guys’.
How about Pat Smullen when he is parted from Dermot Weld?
He may ride intermittently for some of these trainers but they seem to employ him when they feel that their horse has a chance.
It is certainly food for thought when you see Pat Smullen ride elsewhere this Irish Turf Flat season. One more example…
You’ll usually see Shane Foley ride for trainer Halford, but when Shane cycles off to ride for one of these four above, take note!
All of the above stats are based on the last five years, so the hope is that these featured trainers still have a relationship with these major-yard jockeys.
I’ll certainly be taking note of these combos this Irish Flat season. These stats come from www.racingpost.com but alas you have to be a paid member to access these filters.
I’ll be using these features to bring you some more ideas as the Turf Flat season progresses. Enjoy the Flat season and remember to factor in the draw bias!