Can you SAW your way to profit? - What Really Wins Money

Sometime ago I wrote an article about whether or not Stop At A Winner staking (SAW) is worthy of inclusion in the punters armoury.

My conclusion at the time was a resounding YES!

The key however is that SAW staking can’t be used willy nilly on any service or strategy as quite simply there is no such thing as a ‘one cap fits all’ staking plan.

Each staking plan has to be adapted to the system/service you are following in terms of its historic strike rate, average winning and losing runs, and of course average price of winning selections.

For many using SAW staking has proved a ‘saw point’ if you excuse the pun, but only because they have tried it out on the wrong strategy and have consequently been burnt.

A good staking method will NOT turn a bad system into a winning one, on the other hand a good staking system can turn a mediocre system into a more profitable one.

Put simply, applying sensible money management techniques will get the most out of your system or service with the proviso all the other factors I mention above re strike rate etc are adhered to.

So let’s look at the nuts and crannies of SAW staking in operation using an example;

Let’s say you are backing favourites at odds of 2/1 and are looking to Win a £10 target. Your first bet would be a stake of £5 at odds of 2/1.

If it wins you are finished for the day.

If it loses you look to recover that lost £5 + your £10 aim for the day. Therefore your next stake would be £7.50 that at odds of 2/1 would deliver £15. Again if that wins you are finished for the day.

If it loses you would look to recover £12.50 in lost stakes from the first two bets plus your original £10 aim so a total of £22.50 needs to be won from the next bet staked at 2/1. This would require a stake of £11.25.

You continue to do this until you hit a winner and then reset to starting stakes. The problem is, unless you have a decent strike rate stakes can tend to escalate especially when following shortish priced selections.

However there are two potential ways around this that could make SAW work long term.

One was brought to me by a reader who starts on very small stakes aiming to win just £2.50 per cycle with his chosen betting market. Meaning he can go quite a way before his stakes build up which he assures me rarely happens due to a decent long term strike rate.

The second option could be to cap your bets, maybe only SAW up to a maximum of ‘3’ bets and if all unsuccessful then reset to start. This also works for many who play in the right market with the right strategy.

A good one I find is playing in the horse racing place markets with 6 runners or less and backing the second fav if the odds are around 2.00+. Then only SAW up to 3 bets maximum and reset to start if no winner and stop whenever you hit a winner in any of those 3 bets.

Another one is to back the favourite in fields of 6 or less runners in Non Handicap races and with a favourite priced at 2.75 (7/4) or above.

The above is only a guide and over the coming months I will be looking at other markets and strategies that may be suitable for SAW betting and will relay them to you.

Have a go yourself and look for ones based on a similar ilk above and with enough research you’re bound to hit a nice angle of your own!

 

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