This week I thought I would look at big field handicaps on the turf flat, this being the flat season and all!
Let me take you through the performance of favourites in 16+ runner handicaps on the turf only , over the last 10 years.
BSP = Betfair Starting Price
ISP = Industry Starting Price
Distance
Backing favourites in 16+ runner handicaps over 1 mile and 1 mile 5 furlong races has turned a 27 and 18 point profit respectively to BSP and 15 points profit to ISP for 1 mile 5 furlongs.
The latter looks a real specialist distance for big fields so watch out for it. These races look a rarity but the favourite tends to perform well
1 mile 4 furlongs and 1 mile 6 furlongs, strangely enough, have turned a profit for the layer of favourites in 16+ runner handicap. 30 and 20 points profit respectively
Noticeably quite a lot of these races occur in Ireland so watch out for them
Course
Are there any race courses where 16+ runner handicap favourites prosper or fall-foul?
Redcar, Navan and Newbury are the 3 big profit makers for favourite backers , with 36, 23 and 22 points profit to BSP respectively. All have profited to ISP which is a positive for me.
Doncaster, Newcastle and Cork are the courses for the layers of favourites in 16+ runner handicaps
25, 17 and 15 points profit
Specific number of runners.
20+ runner handicaps on turf are the biggest profit maker for the favourite with an eyecatching 44 points profit to BSP and 19 points profit to ISP
22 and 18 points profit for layers of 18 and 21 runner handicaps.
Head gear
Watch out for favourites in tongue ties in 16+ runner handicaps on the turf. A 29 point profit to BSP and winners at tasty odds ( 3 consecutive winners in 2018 at 5/1, 11/4 and 7/1) You will be able to spot headgear within the Racing Post race cards. Watch out for a t next to the horse’s name
The Draw
The Draw is a big factor in the turf flat. 53 and 42 points profit backing favourites in 16+ runner handicaps coming out of draws 12 and 16. That’s quite a stat.
Draw number 13,14 and 15 are the ones for layers to focus on. Nearly 100 points profit laying the favourites in 16+ runner handicaps from these stalls looks very clear cut
Conclusions
I do like focusing on niche races and we have a good niche here. 16+ runner handicaps on the turf flat and a focus specifically on favourites.
Here’s what caught my eye here
- Draws 13, 14 and 15 for the layer
- Draws 12 and 16 for the backer
- Tongue tie on favourites for the backer.
- Backing favourites in 20 runner handicaps
- Redcar stood out for the favourite backer
- 1 mile 4 furlongs and 1 mile 6 furlong races for the favourite layers
- 1 mile races for the favourite backer.
Watch out for 16+ handicap races this turf flat season and see if you can spot when favourites run under these specific conditions.