The Breeders Cup dominates this weekend of horse racing at Churchill Downs: http://breederscup.attheraces.com/ is an excellent free resource if you want to follow the racing, you night owls. It begins today and runs through to tomorrow.
One stat I like? Trainer John Sadler is 0-41 with is runners at the Breeders Cup. If he saddles a favourite or near market leader, laying looks the way to go! Today’s races which interest me statistically?
20:00 Churchill Downs. Only one of the last ten favourites have won this race. The winner’s average odds are around 7/1. Lower draw preferred, although last year’s winner was drawn 11. Concrete Rose and Lilly’s Candle would be my each-way plays here. Around the winner average odds and drawn low.
20:40 Churchill Downs. Four of the last five runnings have seen big-odds winners. four of these big-priced winners failed to win latest, or even place. A contrarian angle today? Look for poor horses! So, Spashy Kisses, Casey’s Dreamer and Baby Nina each way for me at whopping odds.
21:22 Churchill Downs. The last five winners have all come from the first three in the betting, but with only two favourites winning in 11. Look at 2nd and 3rd favourites in particular. 146% profit following Aidan O’Brien in this race. 7/11 winners trained in Europe. Line of Duty appeals here each way. O’Brien’s Anthony Van Dyk would appeal, but is favourite.
22:05 Churchill Downs. 7/11 winners from first three in betting, but only three winning favourites historically. Seven of the last 11 winners had a win last time out. 9/11 winners were from stalls 4-7. Shortlist of Well Defined, Complexity and Mind Control. Complexity is in the top three in the betting, so would be my each-way pick.
Saturday 4th November
16:00 Churchill Downs. Prior to last year’s 66/1 winner, the five prior winners were first two in the betting. Marley’s Freedom and Selcourt are the top two in the betting. With only 3/11 favourites winning, Selcourt each way appeals as the value.
17:16 Churchill Downs. Two winning favourites only were odds-on. Five of 11 winning favourites were double-figure odds. Worth a punt on an outsider?
Four-year-olds have taken 6/11 runnings. The two four-year olds are near the head of the market. Bravazo and Seven Trumpets each way for me, as the shortest-odds double-figure-odds horses.
18:04 Churchill Downs. Only 1/11 favourites have won. Average odds of winner around 8/1. Eight winners from European Trainers. Magic Wand and Eziyra each way for me. Around the winning average odds, European trainers and near the head of the market to be fancied.
18:46 Churchill Downs. Seven winners from first three in the betting. Seven recent winners from California. Roy H each way for me comes from a California trainer.
19:36 Churchill Downs. 6/11 favourites have won here. 7/11 winners from higher draws. Strong European record. Polydream is current favourite and at 11/4 is actually an each-way price. The trainer is French. This selection falls down in the drawn stats, coming from 4th stall.
20:16 Churchill Downs. Seven non-favourites have won the last 11. Group 1 form a must for a selection.
20:56 Churchill Downs. Only 1/11 favourites have won. 4/11 wins for Aidan O’Brien out of 15 runners, though! 155% level-stakes profit. Double Arc winner Enable is strong favourite here. He is layable but obviously outstanding! If you want an each way play instead, Walgeist and Magical each way fall within the average winners odds.
21:44 Churchill Downs. The Breeder’s Cup Classic. 2/11 winning favourites. Six winners from first three in the betting. McKinzie each way for me. Second in the betting, and from a trainer who is running the horse in identical prep races to his last winner of this race.
I hope you night owls who do get involved enjoy this high-class fare. I can only hope that the favourites are as poor as the stats suggest, allowing each way plays a way in!
Have a great weekend.