Nice of Mr O’Brien to oblige with Sergei Prokoviev last Friday. His selections for the 15:35 were second and fifth – the second triggering a place pay-out for each-way players.
Astronomer was chinned in the 16:10 into second – another each way place pay-out.
On the Saturday, in the 14:25 Newmarket, Circus Maximus again triggered a place pay-out for each way players with a third-place. Western Australia finished fourth at 12/1, just outside the places.
The Racing Post is your friend in uncovering angles like this. Look at how many of these O’Brien horses were vying for the win.
At a typical race card at www.racingpost.com, click on the trainer’s name, and then filter by today’s conditions (so, for me last weekend it was Aidan O’Brien, GB Flat [as distinct from Ireland], last five seasons, and that spectacular 40.33 points profit would have accrued).
A sumptuous race card at Ascot, but no Aidan O’Brien two-year-olds, alas!
Did you try out the past-winner race-reading for the Group 1 and Group 2 races at Ascot last week? It can be a potent weapon in deciding to avoid favourites and attacking with a value each way play.
In the 14:40 Ascot last week, my conclusions were: lay Lah Ti Dah as second- and third-favourites have tended to win; back Coronet each way – the nearest horse.
No trainer had won the race twice in a row. Well, Mr. O’Brien obliged this time. Had you backed both second- and third-favourite each-way, you would have made money.
Did you know that we are well-and-truly in the Jumps season now?
Here is a great stats angle for you to use this Jumps season. It is one of a series of stats angles I share at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk:
Your focus will be on Ireland. Your focus will be on races in Ireland with any combination of these words in the race title: Novice; Juvenile; Chase; Hurdles.
A focus here on horses with an ‘L’ plate attached to their hind-quarters! Here are the stats for favourites in Ireland. The stats below are for laying favourites.
- Downpatrick – 80 points profit laying to BSP (Betfair Starting Price), 13.27 R.O.I.
- Down Royal – 60.92 points profit laying to BSP, 11.34 R.O.I.
- Gowran Park – 47.72 points profit laying to BSP, an 8.34 R.O.I.
- Ballinrobe – 31.14 points profit laying to BSP, a 6.92 R.O.I.
- Roscommon – 21.94 points profit laying to BSP, a 7.73 R.O.I.
- Tramore – 20.08 points profit laying to BSP, a 3.49 R.O.I.
- Thurles – 18.50 points profit laying to BSP, a 2.66 R.O.I.
That’s some serious profit over the years. And a real indication that you are better leaving favourites alone at these venues, or if you fancy it, laying favourites in these races whenever the races appear in Ireland.
Add that to the All-Weather handicap top-weight strategy I shared with you a few eletters ago and you should have a fine time of it in the Emerald Isle when you find qualifying races.
Irish venues are easy to find at the Racing Post website. They have ‘IRE’ in brackets.
Hint! Take a look at Sunday’s race card. You’ll find a single qualifier at Galway.
Next week I am going to change tack and focus on football. After all, ‘tis the time to start football betting seriously.
If football is your thing, Andrew David, the Betting Doctor, has a new lay-the-draw strategy, which, in trials, has turned a consistent up-to-15-point profit per month.
This is a new twist on laying-the-draw. As you’ll find out, there’s life in this strategy, which is older than Menzies Campbell! Keep an eye on your inbox.
Have a great weekend.