Why you don’t need a risky accumulator to make good money from fixed odds football bets

There are a number of ways to approach football betting, from the traditional methods of the fixed odds coupon, to in running trading on the betting exchanges. The latter is my preferred method because of the flexibility, ability to adapt to changing circumstances and lock in profits without having to wait 90 minutes. (For more info take a look at your WRWM Premiere Issue). But how can we turn a profit from the more traditional route?

The Fixed Odds Coupon

We all dream of picking 7 straight home wins correct in an accumulator, but this is a difficult feat to achieve. It’s purely down to probability. The more selections you include in an accumulator, the less likely all of these selections will oblige. But this is not an article on the theory of probability.

The traditional fixed odds coupon consists of the long list which includes all UK matches in all major league divisions, the mini sections list and the sections list. The latter 2 lists ask you to pick 1 or 2 matches from each of 4 /5 sections. The matches chosen in these 2 lists are naturally hard to predict. We will, then, concentrate solely on the long list.

How to profit from permutations

The probability of accumulators winning you money diminishes the more teams you add, so we can approach multiple entry bets another way – by using permutations.

It is possible to ‘perm’ bets or selections. For example, if you made 3 selections, (a, b and c) you could perm all the possible doubles. In this case 3 individual bets would be possible; ab, ac, and bc, a total of 3 bets or lines. Similarly, with 4 selections, (a, b, c and d) the possible doubles could again be permed and would become ab, ac, ad, bc, bd and cd; now 6 individual bets or lines.

As we currently stand in terms of form, it would be a good idea to perm teams such as Reading, runaway leaders of the Championship, Chelsea, Celtic at home, Gretna at home and Accrington Stanley. (I use these as examples and not tips).

This gives us 5 teams. We can approach this bet in a number of ways:

1.    Back each team independently with a fixed stake

2.   Back all teams in an accumulator – the winnings from one team accrue onto the next team – BUT all 5 teams must win for us to realize a return

3.   We can perm these teams. So if, say, 2 or 3 teams win, we still get a return, but if all 5 teams win, we will have a very nice payout (dependent on the odds).

Let’s see how we calculate Option 3.

The easy way to calculate the number of bets in a perm’

As an example, let’s choose 3 teams out of the 5 we have singled out to win. We will perm any 3 from 5 = 10 bets. Why 10 bets? Let’s look at the calculations:

STEP 1: Take the number of teams (5) and multiply the 3 highest numbers: 5x4x3 = 60

STEP 2: Take the number of perms (3) and multiply it by every number below it (1 and 2 in this case come before 3): 1 x 2 x 3 = 6

STEP 3: Divide the number in step 1 by the number in step 2: 60/6 = 10

If we wanted to perm any 3 from 6 we would simply follow the 3 steps

STEP 1: Take the number of teams (6) and multiply the 3 highest numbers: 6x5x4 = 120

STEP 2: Take the number of perms (3) and multiply it by every number below it (1 and 2 in this case come before 3): 1 x 2 x 3 = 6

STEP 3: And you then divide 120 by 6 which gives 20 bets.

If it was any 4 from 6 you would multiply the 4 highest numbers: 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360

And you would then multiply the 4 lowest numbers: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 = 24. Then divide 360 by 24 which gives 15 lines.

So a Perm any 5 from 10 would go like this: 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 (the 5 highest numbers multiplied together = 30240). Then multiply the 5 lowest numbers: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4×5= 120. Then divide 30240 by 120 = 252 lines.

How to write your bet on the fixed odds football coupon

For any 5 from 10 perm you would put a 1 (home win) or 2 (away win) or x (draw) against your 10 selections. Decide how much you want to stake on each line (let’s say 2p) and then write: “Perm any 5 from 10 = 252 lines at 2p stake Total £5.04”

Your chances of a return increase tremendously if this type of bet is used.

Here is another way you can use permutations

Let’s say you have a strongly fancied home team, at reasonable odds (ideally evens or over), you could back this team and 2 others (teams where your confidence is not sky high, but you believe they have a greater chance of winning) in a treble and cover all eventualities, provided your strongly fancied team wins. This encompasses 9 bets, as highlighted below. (Remember 1 = home win, x = draw, 2 = away win)

TEAM 1                 111111111

TEAM 2                 11    1   2   2   2 X X X

TEAM 3                 12X1    2X1    2 X

As long as Team 1 wins, you win. And provided the odds are reasonable for Team 1, then your returns will exceed your stakes. For your other 3 teams, look through the long list and include teams where the draw or away odds are 9/4 or 10/3 or a price around this mark. You will lose a small bit of your stake if both teams 2 and 3 win, but if there is any other result, you are in profit – caveat -our team 1 must win.

You can also substitute X (the draw) or 2 (the away win) for team 1 rather then the home win.

Single Bet Strategies:

Use the Saver (no bet) to gain extra insurance when backing a home team

This is a great way to gain insurance when backing a home team. Use the following free calculator at http://www.betcalc.com/savercalc.php and enter the odds of the home team you want to back. You can work the bet in such a way that you break even if there is a draw, and lose if there is an away win. This is a form of dutching for those reticent about laying on the betting exchanges. Note: this bet is the same as laying the away team of course because we win if the home team wins or if there is a draw.

Use The Hard To Beat System for consistent 20% returns!

According to the marketing hype at www.compilersystems.com, this system has made one lucky user £1 million! To be honest, it is similar to my Hard To Beat points selections system for horse racing. So do you really need to fork out £79 to be told to back teams at between 1/5 and 1/3 playing at home? It’s not rocket science, let’s be honest, but the essence of backing very short priced teams who play at home may have some merit and over the long term could provide a consistent return. Patience is required here though, as is an element of due diligence.

As an example, Barcelona at home is usually a rock solid bet, but due diligence is still required. If Ronaldinho (world footballer of the year) and Samuel Etoo aren’t playing, I would have reservations about backing at the price – the importance of research!

With short priced home favourites, we are simply using the bookmakers here to show us which teams are most likely to win.

So can you really make money backing short-priced teams? Why not? 1/5 is a 20% return on money invested, and the strike rate of winners will far outweigh and absorb the losers at level stakes. I know it’s not exciting, but again we need to concentrate on the long term. We can also spread our wings into Europe and seek out solid home favourites through the “euro coup” fixed odds coupon. Again, due diligence is a must here – use the team’s website, or www.betdevil.com to gauge the teams relative performances. Stand out European teams such as Barcelona, Juventus, Fenerbahce, Olympiakos, Bayern Munich, Ajax, AZ Alkmaar are regular inclusions in my bets. I have left out Real Madrid (too unpredictable), Portugeuse football (I have no confidence in form being upheld) and French football (unpredictable). We have numerous opportunities throughout a weekend to back with confidence these short priced home favourites.

I personally concentrate predominantly on English football. I’m also confident with Turkish teams like Fenerbahce andGalatasary when they play at home against teams in the lower half of the Turkish premier league. This season, AZ Alkmaar have been very solid at home in the Dutch league and if their price is short I back them with confidence.

Always make sure you do your due diligence: All of the European leagues are covered at www.betdevil.com , who give a useful insight into recent form, head to heads and more.

With English leagues I venture no further than the Racing and Football Outlook newspaper and www.soccerstats.com . The weekly specialist paper covers all aspects of up and coming football matches. The fixtures and form pages are particularly insightful.

So how should you do your due diligence? First, I would select all teams with home advantage at short prices. Let’s take games on the weekend 4th March 2006. We have 2 qualifiers Celtic at home to Aberdeen 1/6 and Man City at home to Sunderland 2/5

My first stop off point would be the Racing and Football outlook. In their fixtures and form section, I would look at the previous 6 results and the “form” rating they give. The bigger the difference between Celtic and Aberdeen the better: 10+ is excellent. Next I will look at www.betdevil.com and compare the ratings on this site. Again, I am looking for the biggest divergence between the 2 teams in all categories. On betdevil I click on matches and Scotland “all” which lists up and coming matches. When our match is found, the letters BLMOP appear at the end of the line . Click on M for the ratings that we require.

Go to the match ratings analysis – the bigger the ratings difference, the better. This site also shows recent form and previous history. Our ideal is that our chosen team hasn’t lost (or has preferably won) in its last 6 games and has beaten the opposition at home previously.

This is all I do. I also wait for team news prior to kick off, by logging on to www.racingpost.co.uk/sport and make sure there are no key players missing. Pay particular attention to in-form striker injuries or a goal keeping change.

Again The Sports Statistician is an important part of my weekend – I have detailed the merits of this publication and it really is a must if you want to gain an edge. (Remember: the price is just £37 per year NOT per month as printed in last month’s issue! See www.oxonpress.com.) Celtic’s ability to score an average of 2.5 goals at home is a key stat for me. Aberdeen concede an average of 1.1 away from home – good signs again.

Man City v Sunderland: The key here is Sunderland’s inability to win – they conceded 24 goals away from home and scored just 10! Again we check the form stats at the Racing and Football Outlook – the discrepancy is not what I would like – less than 5. A look at the recent form of Man City at www.betdevil.comshows 9 goals scored at home in their last 3 games – and victories in the last 3 matches. Sunderland lost 4 out of 5 away from home, winning 1-0 against fellow strugglers West Brom. Result: Man City win 2-1. This latter game is nowhere near as solid as Celtic and I just chose Celtic on this occasion.

What to do with Multiple Qualifiers: If your research highlights 3 or more qualifiers in a day, then back them all to level stakes. This is where the compiler systems book can help. Advocating level stakes spread over 3 (or however many qualifying) matches and re­investing profits (rarely will 3 selections lose, if at all) will compound returns.

Again it’s a slow burner this system, but I see a profitable long term future.

Sometimes the simplest methods can be missed, but having the bookies point out clear winners at home (as reflected in short prices) and backing them can prove profitable.

If you want an indepth look at backing short-priced teams www.compilerssystems.com ebook costs £79, but with putting your own grey matter to work, I am sure you can keep the £79 and start for yourself!

Which of these Fixed Odds Services is worth a second look?

Richard Mark’s Select Few Football Service:

Richard has made a very tidy sum from selling his various football systems backed up with great copywriting and bold promises, but does he deliver? I must thank John Smith, one of our readers, for his thorough record keeping in respect of the following, and I hope it can give you a glimpse of the service Mr Mark offers.

Marks’ ‘Select Few Football Service’ makes a bold claim: “Instead of working all week for a few hundred pounds, here’s how to make double that in just 7 minutes”

So how did our WRWM reader fare in his test period? From the 24th November 2005, Richard Mark advised some 39 bets on the half time/full time results market (tipping either a win/win or draw/draw), and tipped just 2 winning matches returning £20 and £34.13 to 10% of betting bank (£200). Now it’s going to be the longest 7 minutes of his life if that few hundred pounds is going to be doubled!

The results in this test period are just appalling and in no way mirror the claims made in the literature. This is the service as it stands from a punter’s real experiences up until February. Available at www.richardmark.net for £97 for 6 months or £187 for 12 months, the select few football service just hasn’t produced a profit for Mr Smith through his test period. Avoid!

Beware The Fixed Odds Loophole!

Here’s the marketing hype:

“You Need Know Absolutely Nothing About Sports Betting… Or Even Care… TO BEAT THE BOOKIE OR HAVE THEM RETURN ALL, OR PART OF YOUR STAKE EVERY TIME… 100% GUARANTEED”

With claims like that I just had to buy it! What I received was a 13 page ebook spilling the beans. But what is this fixed odds loophole? Well, I was very disappointed. It’s hardly a loophole at all. It’s backing all outcomes in 3 matches and yes, you are guaranteed a return, but during my test period, my return was a lot less than I actually staked – I mean, what’s the point in that?

The instructions within the ebook are unclear and I would have liked to see the systems in action. The basic premise behind the loophole is an interesting one. There are 27 outcomes in a 3 match bet – can you work them out? The author advocates backing all outcomes. Naturally you will win, but some of the 27 bets will lose you money if they come in. A large slice of luck is needed to return you a profit.

Let’s say I staked £10 per line in a 27 line bet such as this. My stake is £270. My returns on 22 of the bets would lose me money and I would win on 5 of the bets. The odds are stacked against me. In order to return a profit I really need to back games where the prices for the win, draw and away win are all 9/4 or above – this will never happen. True, 2 out of the 3 outcomes can be backed at 9/4 in some matches, but a home win will usually be shorter.

Available at www.fixedoddsloophole.com  for $97, if this system was more clearly explained with actual examples, I could join those people in the testimonials who are making it work (God knows how!) But as it stands – not recommended!