Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
8 435 clonmel Betting forecast: Evs Horse No Name, 3/1 Leighinmohr, 5/1 Dawerann,1st 1.37
7 535 clonmel Betting forecast: 4/6 Augustin, 3/1 Sizinguptheamazon, 8/1 Ben Button, – 2nd 1.2
7 415 carlisle Betting forecast: 13/8 Greybougg, 2/1 Poker School, 7/1 Masirann, – 2nd 1.57
7 425 sthl Betting forecast: 7/4 It Must Be Faith, 7/4 Oriental Relation, 7/1 Pea Shooter, – 1st 1.6
8 455 sthl Betting forecast: 6/4 Sleet, 2/1 Fairy Wing, 7/1 Doctor Hilary, – 2nd 1.16
Today
5 200 ayr Betting forecast: 8/13 Keys, 2/1 Captain Hox, 7/1 Chain Of Beacons,
3 240 leicester Betting forecast: 4/6 Val De Law, 11/8 Cash And Go, 25/1 Bin End.
4 425 leicester Betting forecast: 6/4 Bravo Riquet, 6/4 Kerryhead Storm, 5/1 Gracchus,
12 500 leicester Betting forecast: 2/1 Neverownup, 3/1 Siro Demur, 7/1 Popaway,
10 250 sandown Betting forecast: 5/4 Seven Nation Army, 11/8 Sirabad, 9/1 Rainman,
12 325 sandown Betting forecast: 13/8 Howlongisafoot, 11/4 Loose Chips, 5/1 Ballyallia Man,
6 615 wolves Betting forecast: 11/8 Captain Future, 7/4 You´re Cool, 7/1 St Paul´s Square,
Hi Clive,
This is going well. However, I find some of your results confusing. Yesterday 4:35 Clonmel, you have recorded “House no Name” as !st when it was unplaced. What does this mean.
Also, I expect you have noticed that Betfair sometimes offers additional place markets, Do you sometimes take advantage of them or stick to the industry standard.
For instance in say a 6 horse race the place odds may be too high for 2 places but for 3 places they might be within range.
Regards
Hugh