Bankers or Blowouts

Selections for Sunday 5th July 2015

Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Sunday 5th July 2015

I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you tdivisioo employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

  • 1-0 win for BATE Borisov. As I did the research at www.drt.club I selected Dinamo Minsk as the bankers. They won 1-0.

Today

430pm – HJK Helsinki v HIFK – 1.38 home – away side have lost away to 2nd, 3rd and 4th. HJK did not score last match. I think they will return to scoring against the right kind of opponent today.

5pm – Nomme Kalju v Paide Linnameeskond – 1.17 home – 3 wins to nil away for Nomme in head to heads.  I think Nomme are likely to simply outscore Paide today as both teams could score.

6pm – Trelleborgs v Lunds BK – 1.13 home – a possible win to nil for Trelleborgs

1pm – Serena Williams v Venus Williams – 1.25 Serena – This could be a good price for Serena. Venus has been conspicuous by her absence at the business end of tournaments. It might be a 3 setter but Serena should out.

230pm – Ivo Karlovic v Andy Murray – 1.12 Murray – a risk Ivo could do a tie breaker session as he did v Tsonga. Andy has a 5-0 head to head win so should win this one.

Today at Wimbledon. @whatreallywins twitter I hope from 1130am.

1130am – Richard Gasquet v Nick Kyrgios – 1.77 Nick

20th v 29th in the rankings.
2-1 head to heads for Gasquet.
I am not sure if Gasquet’s win against Dimitrov is as impressive as it looks on paper. Dimi crashed out of Paris, so was not that trustworthy.
Second wind for Gasquet this Wimbledon.
Not dropped a set yet.
Nick battled against top 10 Raonic , 3 sets were 5-7, 7-5, 7-6. Nick has had 3 7-6 sets in his 3 matches so far.
I can see a tiebreaker at least today and both players winning sets. Lay Nick if he leads .
1130am – Olga Govortsova v Madison Keys – 1.37 Keys

122nd v 21st in the rankings.
no head to heads.
Impressive win for Olga v Alize Cornet in 3 sets. Beat Rybarikova in 2 sets, 1st set 7-6
3 6-4 set wins in 4 for Madison. Is she clicking now?
I can certainly see Madison winning a set today. So lay Olga if she wins the first set.
1130am – Vasek Pospisil v Viktor Troicki – 1.37 Viktor

56th v 24th in the rankings.
No head to heads.
Toughies for Vasek 3-2, 3-1 3-2. Very lucky to have beaten James Ward. He won the key points in the last match.
3-1 Troicki in all 3 Wimbledon matches. It’s in the 2nd or 3rd sets that Troicki tends to drop a set so watch out for that if Troicki wins the first set.
I would lay 3-0 for Viktor if he wins the first set. Even Murray is dropping sets, and the Fed dropped a set 2-0 up. So at this stage, expect a reaction from a set dropper.
1130am – Coco Vandeweghe v Lucie Safarova – 1.48 Lucie

47th v 6th in the rankings.
no head to heads.
3 2-0’s for Coco so far and the win against Stosur was particularly eye-catching and convincing.
Sloane Stephens dropped the first set in 2 of her 3 Wimbledon matches and then won the next 2.
Can we lay Coco if she wins the first set and hope for a come back. Sloane is on a run.
1pm – Agnieszka Radwanska v Jelena Jankovic – 1.47 Aggy

13th v 30th in the rankings.
5-2 for Aggy in head to heads.
clean sheets for far for Aggy this Wimbledon.
Jelena has dropped a set in her 3 wins so far. She has dropped the first set in her last 2.
For me I want Jelena to win the first set as I think she will drop the 2nd set. That’s my hope.
1pm – Timea Bacsinszky v Monica Niculescu – 1.3 Timea

15th v 48th in the rankings.
1-3 to Monica in the head to heads.
All 3 2-0 wins for Timea. Impressive win v Sabine Lisicki caught the eye.
Monica 2-1, 2-0, 2-0.
Head to heads I can’t check but judging by the market, it seems they are old head to heads.
If Monica wins the first set, lay her .
1pm – Serena Williams v Venus Williams – 1.25 Serena

the men’s tournament is hotting up as the 2 brothers meet today. I have to be with Serena here unless this is a Nudge Nudge Wink Wink Fix.
If Venus wins the first set, back Serena. This could be a big price for Serena come match-end. The Heather match saw her dominate the key points, with I think 3 consecutive match points before converting.
1pm – Maria Sharapova v Zarina Diyas – 1.08 Maria

4th v 34th. I am waiting for Maria’s service game to collapse.
All 2-0 wins for Maria. Very professional.
Zarina dropped a set 1st round and fought hard in the next 2 matches, 7-5 in the first set in both of those.
This suggests laying Maria at 1.09 today in the hope we get a 5-5 at least first set.
Lay Zarina if she wins the first set
145pm – Victoria Azarenka v Belinda Bencic – 1.42 Victoria

24th v 22nd in the rankings suggests we lay Azarenka at 1.43.
No head to heads.
A return to her results of the past No set dropped yet.
Belinda Bencic has battled, with 2 7-5 sets in the last match.
I would definitely lay Azarenka if she wins the first set. I did that last match as she has been inconsistent, but she is clicking so far this tournament. Bencic looks like a battler.
145pm – Caroline Wozniacki v Garbiñe Muguruza – 1.61 Caroline

5th v 20th in the rankings. 2.64 for 2-0 Wozniacki looks layable for me, better still if Woz wins the first set as we will lay at lower odds.
0-2 to Garbine in head to heads.
Muguruza has dropped a set in her last 2 matches. Lay her if she wins the first set.
230pm – Ivo Karlovic v Andy Murray – 1.12 Murray

Ivo is a tricky customer. I foresee a tiebreaker or 2 if he clicks on his serve.
25th v 3rd
5-0 to Andy in head to heads.
3 7-6 sets for Ivo v Tsonga. That is the potential threat that awaits Andy.
Andy dropped a set , his first of the tournament, v Seppi when 2-0 up.
Lay Andy if he is 2-0 up here. Lay Karlovic if he wins the first set.
230pm – Marin Cilic v Denis Kudla – 1.19 Marin

9th v 105th in the rankings.
4 3-2 sets for these 2, 2 each , suggests a hum dinger today. I must lay Marin at 1.20 here in the hope this is another struggle for him. 4 7-6 tie breakers for Cilic in his last 2 matches.
Lay Cilic 3-0 set betting if he wins the first set and we get reasonable odds in the 3-0 set betting market.
315pm – Tomas Berdych v Gilles Simon – 1.41 Tomas

6th v 13th .
4-6 to Simon in head to heads.
I foresee a potential 5 setter today.I layed Berdych at 1.06 last match and thankfully he lost the first set.
Berdych has dropped a set in 2 matches and Simon in 2 of his matches, latterly 3-2.
Lay any player 2-0 up.
445pm – Novak Djokovic v Kevin Anderson – 1.04 Novak

1st v 14th. 1.53 Novak to win 3-0. My angle here would be to look at a Niemenen like start which sees Novak broken early, then I’d back Novak 1st set winner.
4-1 head to heads for Novak
Thoroughly professional from Novak, either 6-4 or 6-3 set wins.
3 7-6 sets for Anderson suggests struggles to get through in the last 2 matches.
445pm – Roberto Bautista Agut v Roger Federer – 1.06 Federer

2-0 to Federer in head to heads.
22nd v 2nd in the rankings.
I expect Federer to win. He did drop his first set in a long while when 2-0 up last match. That was a tie breaker.
Lay Federer if he is 2-0 sets up here incase he takes his eye off the ball again.