Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
10 220 newcastle Betting forecast: 5/2 Farragon, 11/4 Oscar O´scar, 13/2 Macgillycuddy, 2nd 4.2 1.76
7 310 sthl Betting forecast: 2/1 Westminster, 5/2 Miniskirt, 6/1 Kung Hei Fat Choy, 5th 2.99 1.88
Today
8 210 catterick Betting forecast: 5/4 Lord Navits, 15/8 It´s A Mans World, 13/2 All The Aces
5 410 catterick Betting forecast: 6/4 Cousin Guillaume, 2/1 Henri De Boistron, 5/1 Narcissist,
9 440 catterick Betting forecast: 7/4 Sportingfriendship, 11/4 Cave Hunter, 11/2 Talkin Thomas,
10 320 down Betting forecast: 7/4 Indian Rupee, 2/1 Jumptoconclusions, 5/1 Stynes,
7 520 down Betting forecast: Evs Alberta, 5/4 Hot On Her Heels, 12/1 Louie The Second,
6 430 ling Betting forecast: 5/4 Four Seasons, 5/2 Greatest Journey, 6/1 Pharmaceutical,