2 Horse Race Placers

Selections for Thursday 3rd September 2015

Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Thursday 3rd September 2015

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

8 550 bath Betting forecast: 11/8 Dolphin Rock, 9/4 Zaria, 10/1 Mister Mayday, 1st 1.49
12 200 lingfied Betting forecast: 7/4 Cautious Optimism, 2/1 Bochart, 8/1 Jack Carter, 2nd 1.25

Today

7 430 clonmel Betting forecast: 5/4 Listen Dear, 2/1 Spicy Fruity, 9/2 Won Diamond,
8 730 clonmel Betting forecast: 8/11 Simiel, 5/2 Bobarlee, 11/2 Bowenscourt,
8 715 chelmsford Betting forecast: 11/8 Sky Cape, 11/4 Cryptonym, 7/1 Syncopate,
9 200 haydock Betting forecast: 7/4 Star Storm, 9/4 Goathland, 5/1 Our Thomas,
7 345 salisbury Betting forecast: 7/4 Mayfair Lady, 9/4 Whatdoiwantthatfor, 9/2 La Rioja,
5 450 salsibury Betting forecast: 5/4 Flying Officer, 7/4 Melodious, 9/2 Cinnilla