A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

9 510 beverley Betting forecast: 11/10 Langlauf, 7/4 Zaina Rizeena, 8/1 Belle Vale, 3rd 1.08
9 205 cartmel Betting forecast: 11/8 Scrafton, 13/8 Altruism, 8/1 Killiecrankie 2nd 2.17 1.12
7 605 windsor Betting forecast: 7/4 Keystroke, 5/2 Critical Risk, 6/1 Yeenaan, 2nd 2.02
8 545 wexford Betting forecast: 5/4 Miss Me Now, 7/4 Kalopsia, 6/1 Present Flower, 6th 1.21

Today

7 220 beverley Betting forecast: 4/5 Anabel, 3/1 Walsingham Grange, 8/1 Media World