Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
10 200 hunt Betting forecast: 6/4 Lanceur, 9/4 Perfect Summer, 9/2 Simple Assignment, 1st 1.26
8 500 hunt Betting forecast: 11/10 Knockgraffon, 2/1 Ballyhenry, 14/1 Brave Richard, 1st 1.04
19 250 navan Betting forecast: 9/4 Sizing Titanium, 3/1 Badgerfort, 6/1 Cest Notre Gris, 1st and 14th 1.7
8 350 navan Betting forecast: 8/11 Azorian, 11/4 Riverside City, 6/1 Rudolf 1st 1.14
7 520 navan Betting forecast: 11/8 Anibale Fly, 5/2 Wes Hardin, 7/1 Figurative, 1st 1.52
Today
7 230 fakenham Betting forecast: 15/8 Needless Shouting, 5/2 Response, 5/1 Aviator,
4 215 sthl Betting forecast: Evs Nomadic Storm, 13/8 Got The Nac, 5/1 Frizzo,
6 320 sthl Betting forecast: 1/2 Toby Lerone, 3/1 The Wexfordian, 13/2 Royale Django,