I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you tdivisioo employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

• no bankers put up

Today

130pm – Hougang Utd v Singapore Rec Club – 1.07 home. – don’t get over-excited now. This is the Singaporean league cup! Expect Hougang to be leading at halftime in order to bump up the odds.

745pm – West Ham v FC Lusitans – 1.02 home – hammers to lead halftime and fulltime. I would look at over 4.5 goals or over 5.5 goals to bump up the odds.

8pm – Glentoran v Zilina – 1.45 away – Glentoran are likely not to win. They have not won in the Europa League yet.

805pm – Shkendija v Aberdeen – 1.48 away – debut for the Macedonian home side. Aberdeen really should put this lot to the sword. Of course, differing playing styles ( and this applies to all Europa League matches) mean the home side could just prove tough to beat. We simply have to guess with a degree of intelligence. 2nd in the SPL and a solid season suggests an ability to cope.

Tennis and other matches to follow.

Wimbledon – some nice trades at @whatreallywins -took a bit of patience for them to arrive but they came. Ended with Cilic battling to secure the win and backable as high as 2.28 final set.

1130am – Lara Arruabarrena v Camila Giorgi – 1.16 Cam

• 85th v 32nd . The rankings already suggest that Giorgi is not a top player and slightly inconsistent. 1.16 therefore is too short for me.
• 2 -0 wins for both players and Giorgi ‘s first set was a 7-6 tie breaker. I look for that as these are 50/50 shots really and not indicative of dominance. 2 consecutive matches with a 7-6 for Giorgi suggests I lay 1.17.

1130am – Ekaterina Makarova v Magdalena Rybarikova – 1.35 Makarova

• 8th v 65th in the world BUT why is Ekaterina not shorter in the betting for a top 10 player?
• 1-2 head to heads for Rybarikova
• I think Rybarikova went through in 1 set 1st round 7-6 so her opponent was injured then . Tough to evaluate that.
• Lay the first set winner here. This could be a 3 setter. We will get great short odds if Makarova wins the first set. That’s the hope, to keep risk low.

1130am- Sam Groth v James Duckworth – 1.26 Sam

• 69th v 87th. 2 Australians. This does not make this a 3-0 match at all.
• Instinctually, 1.26 should not be the highest odds that Groth trades at today . Anderson, Cilic all struggled at far, far shorter odds yesterday. Eminently layable at 1.27 given the format in the men’s game.
• 8 7-6 sets in Duckworth’s last 5 matches suggests Vera will be a battler. 2-2 and 3-2 last 2 matches.
• 7 7-6 set matches in the 4 matches before his first round for Groth suggests these players will progress by winning key points. This means that 1.26, as I say, is far too short for a likely tie breaker laden affair. The ideal is to lay Groth 1-0 or 2-0 sets up at far lower odds.

1130am – Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov v Angelique Kerber – 1.16

• 46th v 10th and 3-3 in head to heads.
• Kerber was a winner in Birmingham only dropping one set in the FInal.
• Pav is a battler. 2 7-6 tie breakers in her 1st round match v Barthel suggests she will be tough to beat today.
• We might see a tie breaker today.I would lay Kerber if she wins the first set. Pav could take a 2nd set all the way.

1pm – Feliciano Lopez v Nikoloz Basilashvili – 1.15 Lopez

• 16th v 153rd in the rankings. 1.98 for Lopez 3-0 suggests it will not be smooth sailing. Indeed , watching the men’s matches this tournament, players at far shorter odds have had to battle usually in 4+ sets.
• No head to heads.
• Basil is a little faulty. A serial first round exiter until now.  Lopez is likely to manuel-handle him into submission.
• Lay Lopez 2-0 up here. As I say, there seems to be a battle on when you least expect one in these men’s matches.

1pm – Robin Haase v Andy Murray – 1.02 Andy

• 78th v 3rd 1-3 in head to heads for Andy
• 3 7-6 sets in Andy’s last 4 matches suggests 3-0 set betting is layable off the bat in the hope that we see an odds movement if we meet another tie breaker today. Fair warning that this market is terribly illiquid so you might not be able to execute a lay trade.
• 1.03 of course must be layed just because…..
• Haase has dropped at least a set in his last 3 matches so if he wins the first set, expect an instant Murray fight-back.

1pm – Vasek Pospisil v Fabio Fognini – 1.7 Foggy

• 56th v 28th in the rankings. No head to heads.
• 3-2 v Millot for Pospisil when he was under 1.2 in the match odds. He is not a trustworthy favourite  – he is not fav today though.
• A reasonable 3-0 win for Foggy first round. I did lay him after his first set win incase he threw his toys out of the pram as he is wont to do. Pospisil is not to be trusted if taking a lead and that is my angle in here today in a match which is unlikely to see a 3-o victor.

1pm – Andreas Seppi v Borna Coric – 1.26 Seppi

• I went against the market in Coric’s first round match and was rewarded for my faith in him. This guy is class. Young, relatively inexperienced, but class.
• 27th v 40th in the rankings. Coric is climbing up the rankings.
• 3-2 first round for Coric ended with a 9-7 set  . Comfortable for Seppi first round.
• Seppi reached the final of the Gerry Weber although was given a bye in the semi as Nishikori retired. Solid recent grass form, if not a bit lucky.
• I will definitely follow my previous tactics and lay Seppi at short odds if he goes 1-0 up and looks like going 2-0 up ( i.e. early break 2nd set). I hope Coric can nick a set although Seppi does seem to enjoy grass.

230pm -Sam Querrey v Roger Federer – 1.05 Federer

• 36th v 2nd in the rankings and 0-2 Federer.
• the last 5 Fed grass matches have all been without dropping a set so the 3-0 is a starter albeit at poor odds.
• Querrey reached the Final in Nottingham and is a player who has had 8 sets finish 7-6 or 7-5 in his last 5 matches.  Querrey likes grass. The only value here is if he wins the first set and breaks first in the 2nd. We can only hope. Fed though is proving tough to even nick a set off recently.

445pm – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Albert Ramos-Vinolas – 1.04 Tsonga

• strange to see odds shorten as you progress in a tournament.
• 12th v 65th and 1-0 Tsonga in head to heads.
• Now I see why. Vinolas is predominantly a Challenge Tour player recently. He went out first round in Nottingham.
• Tsonga had an excellent French Open reaching the semi final . Tough opening round match as I indicated in research, 3-2 it ended The first 2 sets were tie breakers.
• I would always advocating laying players at 1.05 and lower just because the upside is far greater than the downside.  1.39 for 3-0 is emphatic.
• A hope Albert does as Niemenen did yesterday and start at a blistering pace so we can back 3-0 at near evens.

TODAY’S BANKERS

As above with the football.

Federer 3-0 sets looks like a goer here. He went through Gerry Weber without dropping a set. Always a risk as the player is focussed on winning, not necessarily winning to nil.

Feliciano Lopez at 1.15 odds has a reasonable chance today against serial 1st round exiter Basil.