I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you tdivisioo employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

 

1-0 to BATE and Valerenga lost 1-2. Valerenga were 1-0 up until the 82nd minute.

Today

Wimbledon

For some reason Betfair’s Head to head facility is not available for these matches. This takes a big chunk of my research away as I want to see recent form.
1130am – Andreas Haider-Maurer v Ricardas Berankis – 1.57 Berankis
57th v 90th in the rankings. No head to heads. Betfair does not cover recent matches so I will move on here. The rankings suggest to me though that Berankis may not be an overwhelming 0-3 set betting winner so I would consider laying him if he wins the first set.
1130am – Kirsten Flipkens v Annika Beck – 1.68 Kirsten
96th v 70th in the women’s rankings. Again Betfair is not covering the head to head so I cannot see recent form.
1-1 in head to heads. 6-4 6-1 Flipkens in 2015 in Poland on hard courts.
1130am – Martin Klizan v Fernando Verdasco – 1.33 Verdasco
No head to heads between 39th and 43rd in the rankings. The rankings are really tight. Verdasco’s odds are a tad short for such tight rankings. I would lay Fernando if he leads 0-2 sets.
1130am – Anett Kontaveit v Victoria Azarenka – 1.15 Azarenka
24th v 145th in the rankings ( Azarenka the shorter ranked). A poor Birmingham from Azarenka.7-6, 6-4 and withdrawn. I would have to lay Azarenka if she wins the first set.
Kontaveit has had a strong grass run .She won the final at Eastbourne, semi’s in Surbiton, Semi’s at Ilkley.
Azarenka has not really had a grass run and could be vulnerable. As I say, the value is in laying her if she wins the first set.
1130am – Nick KyrgiosvDiego Schwartzman – 1.07 Nick
1.48 for 3-0 is enticing for Nick.
29th v 64th in the rankings. No head to heads. In France, Kyrgios lost to Andy Murray. At Aegon, Kyrgios lost in 2 sets to Wawrinka. This suggests he will not get further I think than the quarter finals as he tends to stutter v the top 10. But 64th?
Schwartzman gave Monfils a good going at Paris, winning 2 sets. Yes, clay court, but if he can replicate this against a poorer ranked Nick, then he could nick a set.
In Nottingham he only played one match losing in 3 sets to 74th . So maybe grass is not his surface?
There are arguments for opposing 3-0 Kyrgios, but that is based on Monfils on the clay. Losing v 74th suggests we get no value here today. So let’s hope Diego nicks a set because I will definitely lay him
1130am – Liam BroadyvMarinko Matosevic – 1.53 Matosevic
182nd v 138th in the rankings.
No head to heads.
Broady is a Brit. Enough to get a set off Matosevic? 4 consecutive losses for Broady recently. He is in poor form losing to 130th, 130th ( another player), 82nd and 93rd.
11 consecutive losses for Matosevic. He ain’t all that! Recent loss in Notts v 297th. Lay Matosevic if he goes 2-0 up. Will the english player be galvanised?
1130am – Leonardo Mayer v Thanasi Kokkinakis – 1.53 Mayer
21st v 71st in the rankings. Kokkinakis will be tough to beat I would warrant.
4 7-6 sets for Mayer recently in Nottingham suggests we will see one or 2 tie breakers. I would lay Mayer 3-0 sets if he wins the first set. In fact, lay the first set winner in the 3-0 market.
1130am – Marin CilicvHiroki Moriya – 1.04.
1.35 for 3-0
9th v 174th. Top 10 should win 3-0 with ease. Anything else… get stuck in!
1130am – Flavia PennettavZarina Diyas – 1.67 Pennetta.
26th v 34th in the rankings. Recent highlights for Pennetta? Beating Navarro in Paris in 2 sets. Excellent against such an in-form player.Lost v Kuznetsova in 2 sets.
3 Grass tournaments for Diyas and some good form. Quarters in Birmingham but got there though Azarenka’s retirement. Beat Schiavone 7-6, 7-6 in Nottingham but then lost in 2 sets to 146th!
I would lay the first set winner here in the 2-0 set betting market. There is a hint that Diyas could take a set to a tiebreaker.
1130am – Karolina Pliskova v Irina Falconi – 1.18 Pliskova.
11th v 69th in the rankings. 1-0 to Pliskova in head to heads.
76-63 in 2013 on hard.
Pliskova reached the final in Birmingham and lost to Radwanska in the round of 16 in Nottingham
Falconi also lost to Radwanska, but in Eastbourne. Tends to play in qualifying rounds.
This should be a step too far for Falconi today. 2-0 Pliskova?

1130am – Horacio Zeballos v David Goffin  – 1.13 Goffin

1pm – Alexandra Dulgheru v Kristina Mladenovic – 1.29 Kristina

1pm – Sara Errani v Francesca Schiavone  – 1.43 Errani

1pm – Novak Djokovic v Philipp Kohlschreiber  – 1.05Novak

1st v 33rd and 6-1 to Novak in head to heads.

With Betfair Head to head not loading, it is more cumbersome to check out recent form and head to heads.

Kohl recently made Federer work in Germany but may have had extra impetus from being at home. 2 7-6 sets suggests he could stay with Djokovic for a short while here. He reached the quarters on grass in Stuttgart too.

I would lay Novak here at 1.05 just because the liability is de minimus and Kohl is not making up the numbers here. I do though expect an potential 3-0 but hope that at least a set goes to a tie breaker. Remember how hard Federer was made to work in Halle?

1pm – Go Soeda v John Isner  – 1.08 Isner

Break my serve, I dare ya! Go is likely to stop in this first round. 1.56 for 3-0 says it all.

91st v 17th and 1 head to head win for Big John.

Last met in 2013. First set was a 7-6 set. Likely we will see a tie breaker today if Big John cannot break Soeda.

In Roland Garros, Soeda met a 28th ranked player and won only 3 games in 3 sets. Isner is 17th.

Similarly, at Aegon recently on grass, 83rd ranked Istomin won in 3 sets.

Semi’s in Nice, a poor Roland Garros, quarter finals at Aegon saw 5 7-6 set matches.

This should, on form, be 3-0 to John Isner. Therefore, lay Soeda 3-0 sets if he nicks the first set.

1pm – Serena Williams v Margarita Gasparyan – 1.03 Serena. The man with a plan returns to win the women’s title again. Remember what happened to Serena in Paris. Losing the first set then winning the next 2. LEt’s hope this happy predictable pattern remained. I did lay Serena in Paris at 1.03 odds and traded out at 1.27 so it is possible we will see early round set losses.

Gasparyan is 113th in the world. Out in the qualifying round in Birmingham and 1st round in Paris, Gasparyan should not land a blow today.

I am a layer of Serena at 1.03 though just because those odds are crazy .

145pm – Jarkko Nieminen v Lleyton Hewitt  – 1.61 Hewitt. I never tire of hearing the Aussie attention seekers and their oh so unpredictable chants at Wimbledon. It makes life worth living.

I won’t research this match. How Hewitt is still eeking  a living from this sport God only knows. He will be competitive today though in a match I would expect both players to get a set in.  92nd v 118th in the rankings. Lay the first set winner in the 3-0 set market. Lay any player 2-0 up in the 3-0 set market.

145pm – Jan-Lennard Struff v Bernard Tomic  – 1.18 Tomic. Another Ozzie who is not a spent force yet.

112th v 26th. I am surprised at Tomic’s rankings. I did not expect him to be so low.

0-1 in head to heads for Tomic.

Tomic won as recently as this month in Germany on grass 3-6 6-7 so there is a chance he may be pushed today to at least one tie breaker. 5 MATCH Losing streak for Struff.

Questionable attitude from Tomic recently Highly inconsistent, for instance losing to Nadal in the quarters in Germany, then losing to 53rd ranked Steve Johnson in Halle.

I would not be a Tomic backer today although I expect him to oblige. I would lay him 3-0 set betting if he wins the first set.

145pm – Carla Suárez Navarro v Jelena Ostapenko  – 1.18 Navarro. A thoroughly reliable Carla has had a great 2015.

9th in the world now v 147th and no head to heads.  Ostapenko is generally a “qualifers” player. She did retire in ilkley last match so might be carrying an injury. Carla has had an excellent season and should win 2-0 today. Anything else, side with Carla.

145pm – Yi-Fan Xu v Ana Ivanovic  – 1.08 Ana. Fan Xu plays Phwooar You.  176th v 7th in the world.

A challenger tour and qualifying round player who reached the semi finals of Roland Garros but faltered in Birmingham to 135 ranked player. Not sure what happened there . A slight vulnerability as we don’t know the story there . Expected to be re-ignited for another Grand Slam.

0-2 expected from Ana. If Xu wins the first set, it should end 1-2 Ana

230pm – Simone Bolelli v Kei Nishikori  – 1.26 Kei.

55th v 5th in the world. Surprising odds for me. I thought they would be lower. Might tell a story?

Top ranked players a stumbling block for Bolelli. Gave Ferrer a 5 set battle in Paris, lost in 2 to 19th ranked Gasquet at Aegon, and lost to Baghdatis in the quarters at Nottingham.  Consistently loses to top 10 players recently.

Finals Barca, Semis in Rome, Semis in Madrid, quarters in Paris, Semis in Halle, you get the idea. Ultra consistent. BUT he did retire in Halle. We don’t know the back story and that could be a reason for the relatively high odds given the rankings discrepancies.

I would lay Bolelli if he takes a lead in this match. A watching brief initially to see if Kei is fit.

315pm – Maria Sharapova v Johanna Konta  – 1.14 Maria. Vulnerable to throwing in some seriously bad service games and recently going through a sticky patch, I expect Maria to limp through these early rounds, screaming as is her wont.

4th v 126th in the rankings. It’s any wonder why she is not shorter in the betting?

After a poor run, Maria reached the semis in Madrid, won in Rome, and reached the round of 16 at Roland Garros.

1st round French open for Konta, quarters in Nottingham, round of 32 Birmingham and quarters in Eastbourne where she lives.

Konta may have British support despite being an Aussie by birth. Maria should win 2-0 today but if her poor service game turns up, let’s hope Konta nicks the first set, to lay her 2-0.

445pm – Donald Young v Marcos Baghdatis  – 1.55 Baggy. THe odds are about right here. Baghdatis had an inspired recent run beating Ferrer on grass. Whether Ferrer was fully wound up I don’t know but a straight sets win was great. I know. I layed Baggie at 1. 6 1 set up and traded out thankfully when he was broken 2nd set ( which he won!)

58th v 54th in the rankings. Both players described generously as “journeymen’. Unlikely to be here at the end. 1-0 to Young in recent head to heads and I cannot investigate them as Betfair Head to head is down. I think Young had to go through qualifying to get here. Recent performances have been poor, although did meet rising star Coric in Halle. Baggy reached the semis in Nottingham before retiring. That was where he beat Ferrer.

In Stuttgart he took Rafa to 3 sets and 2 tie breakers.

Both players are inconsistent sorts , as they say in horse racing circles but form is with Baghdatis if he didn’t retire in Nottingham through any serious injury concern.

Both players should take a set today so lay any first set winner 3-0 set betting or any player 2-0 up.

530pm – Madison Brengle v Venus Williams  – 1.25 Venus. This Williams Brother would not be getting my money. A player very much on the wain.  36th v 16th in the rankings. No head to heads. A definite lay of Venus if he wins the first set today.  Brengle does tend to lose easily and in 2 sets to players around Venus’s rankings which is a slight negative.

A recent loss to Sloane Stephens does emphasise that Venus is in decline. 1.25 might even be layable straight off the bat but I would rather lay if she wins the first set.

530pm – Heather Watson v Caroline Garcia  – 1.81 Heather. Both players to win a set I feel today. Heather will not go deep in this tournament alas.  59th v 33rd in the rankings.  Heather has a 1-0 lead, and hope support. Guernsey’s finest to get a set at least I am sure. I would not be surprised were this a tie breaker match. Lay the first set winner today.

Tennis bankers?

1130am – Marin CilicvHiroki Moriya – 1.04. – expect 3-0

1130am – Karolina Pliskova v Irina Falconi – 1.18 Pliskova.

145pm – Carla Suárez Navarro v Jelena Ostapenko – 1.18 Navarro.

145pm – Yi-Fan Xu v Ana Ivanovic – 1.08 Ana  2-0 Ana set betting

230pm – Simone Bolelli v Kei Nishikori – 1.26 Kei. – bolelli keeps stumbling v top 10. Kei did retire last match. Injury worry? If fully fit, he will win.

315pm – Maria Sharapova v Johanna Konta – 1.14 Maria.

More to follow if I have time.