Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
9 150 newcastle Betting forecast: 4/5 Zip Top, 5/4 Fascino Rustico, 11/1 Delta Forty 2nd 1.07
11 420 newcastle Betting forecast: 11/10 High Bridge, 11/4 Mahler Lad, 10/1 Penny Tara, 3rd 1.22
Today
7 230 sthl Betting forecast: 11/8 Risk ´n´ Reward, 3/1 Cadeaux Pearl, 11/2 Done Dreaming,
6 300 sthl Betting forecast: 9/4 Luv U Whatever, 11/4 Jacobs Son, 11/2 Deep Resolve
21 235 thurles Betting forecast: 6/4 Totally Dominant, 11/4 Cest Notre Gris, 10/1 Arctic Skipper,
16 150 towcester Betting forecast: 13/8 Dusky Legend, 5/2 The Govaness, 8/1 Altesse De Guye,
12 140 wincanton Betting forecast: 11/10 Otago Trail, 13/8 Brook, 13/2 Triple Chief,
9 535 wolves Betting forecast: 2/1 Ballyfarsoon, 5/2 Shadows Ofthenight, 5/1 Cathedral,