Bankers or Blowouts

Selections for Thursday 28th May 2015

Racing Testing Lab

Selections for Thursday 28th May 2015

I wrote an article for my eletter on this subject, focussing on Banker Bets and showing you how we can profit from them.

I’ll list some apparent “bankers” in this post, and time permitting, will try to do this daily. I try to look for 1.1 odds or higher. The goal is to win back your initial stake and bank that immediately, then play on, banking profits every £10 or so.

This is not a strategy where I’m trying to create the biggest odds returns. I want a “banker”, a bet which is obvious.

Bankers and Blowouts – the mini-DRT angle.

www.drt.club is my trading service where I do all of my football research. I have noticed that these bankers, whilst sometimes frustrating us with score draws and throwing away 2-0 leads, rarely lose matches. How can you profit? Well are you familiar with football trading? That is, reacting to how a match unfolds in-play? If you are then you would have taken on faith the fact that these bankers rarely lose, and layed Dundee in play , when they were 1-3 up to bankers Aberdeen. Final score ( as you see below), 3-3. How about more frustrating bar stewards like Club Brugge the other day against Mechelen.

Staying with our premis that Bankers rarely lose, what could you have done if Mechelen ( as they did) take the lead? Lay Mechelen! Better yet, what if the match was still 0-1 coming to 90 minutes? Lay Mechelen at lower odds for potentially greater profit! You know what happened next, I am sure. Club Brugge equalised in the 90th minute.

I have already mentioned the idea of laying a team 2-0 up, to lock in profit. Consider the above elements too , in order to maximise the premis that Bankers rarely lose.

Just an added note regarding staking. If the strike rate remains as high as it is, I would recommend staying with level stakes, but re-calculating every 20 bets  which would have produced a bank of 747 pounds from an initial 100 pounds in November. Increasing the frequency to re-calculating 10% of the betting bank every 10 bets does extract a little more profit.

Plenty to ponder there. If you increase the % of bank bet, of course, then things really start getting exciting ( but ever the cautious, I’d have to warn you that it would be a big fall from grace if we hit a losing run)

At this juncture, level stakes is the only realistic staking option as some bets kick off at the same time. If you wanted other options, then select one bet at one time, as long as the next bet began after the 1st bet ended. This way you could employ “reactive” staking.

By selecting one bet for a specific time, the number of bets reduces from 225 to 137. Is there any advantage in reactive staking? Let’s take a look.

 

http://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php is the staking plan of interest, betting 20% of the bank ( as the assumed strike rate will continue to be high), turned 100 pounds on 22 November 2014 into 1356.48 as of today. ( as you can tell I don’t have apound sign on my keyboard lol).

We can employ a higher risk staking I think with assumed higher strike rate strategies. If doing , I would strongly urge you to withdraw initial seed money once the bank has doubled to allow you to employ these higher risk strategies using OPM  – other people’s money.

Yesterday

 

BANKERS

10am – Samantha Stosur v Amandine Hesse  – 1.08 Sam – 2-0

130pm – Fabio Fognini v Benoit Paire  – 1.3 Fabio -0-3. 5-3 up 2nd set and it would have been so different.

130pm – Mirjana Lucic-Baroni v Simona Halep  – 1.05 Simona – Well, Baroni did as she did against Keys but this time won in 2 sets. 

330pm – Carla Suarez Navarro v Virginie Razzano  – 1.07 Carla  1.27 for 2-0 to Carla.No bet, Razzano injured.

Today

I think the tennis is best served as a trading vehicle! It worked a treat yesterday. For example, laying Lucic Baroni at 1.04 – yes the bet lose. and ditto Fognini. But other profits were to be had in Gael Monfils match, and Andujar v Kohlschreiber which I shared with www.drt.club members would be a ding dong trading match.

10am – Marin Cilic v Andrea Arnaboldi  – 1.07 Cilic.

1.61 3-0 sets is compelling  – the market expects 10th to smash 187th in the world.

Angles in? Lay Cilic at 1.07 …..just in case…..

Arnaboldi is very lucky to be here. 2-2 first round with 3 7-6 sets and a retirement for his opponent, James “Vera” Duckworth.

There is a hope for some tiebreakers but I feel a player 10th in the world will be too much. From a trading perspective, I hope Andrea battles.

10am – Julia Goerges v Caroline Wozniacki  – 1.15 Woz.

1.48 for 2-0 is probably not something I am interested in. Woz can tend to be slow to start.3-4 in head to heads is very interesting indeed. It does suggest I lay Woz at 1.15 , better yet at a lower price if she breaks first.  In 2014 and 2015, Woz won the last 2 head to heads.  It was a 3 setter in 2014 and 2 6-4 set wins in 2015.

This again further underlines a hope that Woz is vulnerable at short odds if breaking first.

Woz had an easy run in the first round with a retirement so we are yet to see her really play.

10am – Jerzy Janowicz v Leonardo Mayer  – 1.37 Mayer. As with Kohlschreiber’s match, this has the feel of a match where both players will get a set. 50th v 22nd is not such a massive gap in the rankings.0-1 to Mayer head to heads.

Jerzy has had 3 1st round clay court exits and the poor form was underlined by Dimitrov’s departure recently in this competition in straight setss.

Mayer reached the final in Nice on clay, losing 1-2 to Thiem. He is the man with the form entering this match. I think it suggests Mayer will win, but there is a feeling, as I say, that we lay the first set winner in the set betting 3-0 . Slight concern. I have noticed the set betting markets are really illiquid. So maybe lay the first set winner in the match odds. Better yet, hope a player takes a 2-0 lead.

Mayer favoured for me today so hope he gets in a pickle.

10am – Petra Kvitova v Silvia Soler-Espinosa  – 1.12 Petra

4th v 97th in the World. Rankings didn’t stop Halep imploding yesterday!

Espinoza, like Jerzy, is a 1st round exiter on clay . Petra lost 0-2 to suarex Navaroo in the quarters in Italy. 2-1 in the first round v Erakovic.

Kvitova did lose a set when not expected to yesterday. I cannot see Espinoza, on form, troubling her. A good DRT match therefore. Look for a shock

10am – Andrea Petkovic v Lourdes Dominguez Lino  – 1.15 Andrea.

2 straight set wins for Andrea in head to heads, the latest in 2014.

10am – Francesca Schiavone v Svetlana Kuznetsova  – 1.15 Svet.

98nd v 18th . Schiavone is a terrier-like player and former French Open Champion so I would speculatively lay Svetlana if she breaks first at nice short odds. If she wins the first set, better as her odds will be even shorter. I could foresee a tight 2nd set if Svet wins the first set.

1115am- Nicolas Almagro v Rafael Nadal  – 1.07 Rafa

154th v 7th. Only top 10 players tend to beat Nadal recently.

Almagro took a set off Djokovic, in Italy 2nd round  – the first set -so pleasee Nicolas could you do that again!

1:12 for Nadal in head to heads.  2 straight sets wins for Rafa in 2015.

1115am – David Goffin v Santiago Giraldo  – 1.32 Goffin

This is another match where I think Goffin will drop a set. 18th v 64th in the world. Goffin is still learning.

2.82 to lay 3-0? Well we can get shorter odds if Goffin wins the first set. He dropped the first set first round .

Giraldo beat Marin Cilic in Geneva so that re-inforces the idea that Goffin will not win in 3 straight sets ( at least if Giraldo turns up with that form).

1115am – Lucie Hradecka v Victoria Azarenka   – 1.14 Azarenka

61st v 27th in the rankings.

1.5 for 2-0 sets is a wee bit short for me. Azarenka can ” do a Fognini” at times.

Both head to heads saw Hradecka taking a set and 7-5 sets in both matches. The 2 matches saw the first set 7-5, Azarenka win, then Hradecka won a set, then Azarenka won the 3rd set. So lay Azarenka 2-0 set betting if she wins the first set.

1115am  – Jurgen Melzer v Andrey Kuznetsov  – 1.55 Andrey

110 v 120th in the rankings. The odds should be a little closer. 3.6 to lay Kuznetsov might have legs from the off here. As I keep repeating, better odds if he wins the first set.

These 2 tend to go out 1st and 2nd rounds in recent tournaments.

I think both players will win a set.

1115am  – Serena Williams v Anna-Lena Friedsam  – 1.03  -I would always lay 1.03 shots just in case….

1130am – Karolina Pliskova v Andreea Mitu – 1.35 Karolina

12th v 100th in the rankings. no head to heads.

No real opinions on this one. There is a big rankings discrepancy. Lay Mitu if she wins the first set.

1230pm – Jeremy Chardy v John Isner  – 1.57 Isner. Odds about right here. Expect a tie breaker or 2 with Isner.45th v 16th

2-1 to Chardy in head to heads suggests we can lay the first set winner in the 3-0 set betting market.

Lay Chardy if he is 2-0 up.

1230pm – Novak Djokovic v Gilles Muller  – unbackable – lay Novak at 1.01. Short change I know but he might pull a muscle or have an off day. No value to be had unless Muller makes a mark.

1245pm – Andy Murray v Joao Sousa  – 1.03 . Another player to lay at such odds in a first to 3 sets Grand Slam.

3rd v 44th in the rankings.

Sousa was a beaten finalist in Geneva so has solid clay credentials.  1.33 for 3-0 Murray is enticing. 3-1 is the value call I suppose at 4.9 as it is still alive at 2-0 and 1-0 to Sousa

1245pm – Jack Sock v Pablo Carreno Busta  – 1.45 Sock

37th v 61st. This is likely to be tighter than the Dimitrov match for Sock. Grigor didn’t show up.

First meeting for these 2.

Semi final in Estoril for Busta.

I would again Lay Sock 3-0 sets here if he wins the first. In fact, lay the first set winner 3-0

145pm – Heather Watson v Sloane Stephens  – 1.43 Sloane

Guernsey’s finest battled through to win. Sloane Stephens is the price Heather was last time she played.

This is interest. 45th ranked Heather plays 40th placed Sloane.

Heather has won in the last 4 head to heads. She dropped a set twice in 2012 but in 2015 in Hobart, she won 6-3, 6-1 on the hard court.

2 1st round exits, a 2nd round exit to Carla for Heather recently.

Sloane reached the semi’s in Strasbourg.

On form I would favour Sloane Stephens but I could see this being competitive. I hope Heather takes a set and I would lay the first set winner to win 2-0 here today. I hope I’m right and the market is wrong.

2pm – Richard Gasquet v Carlos Berlocq  – 1.12 Gasquet

21st v 111th. French star Gasquet will win, I’d say and at 1.7 3-0 it is enticing. Value lies in BErlocq showing the form of his battling 3-2 come from behind win in the first round.

2pm – Daniel Gimeno Traver v David Ferrer  – 1.03 Ferrer.

66th v 8th

Just as with Berdych playing a fellow countryman, Traver might have a chance of winning a set so lay Ferrer 3-0 sets if he wins the first set. It will present a value angle in.

2pm – Yen-Hsun Lu v Kevin Anderson  – 1.16 Anderson.

65th v 17th in the world.

Lu won in 2015  so I would lay Anderson at 2.00 or lower in the 3-0 set betting market just in the hope he remembers that win and it gives Lu some belief.

215pm – Danka Kovinic v Kristina Mladenovic  – 1.66 Kristina.

89th v 44th.

Mladenovic took advantage of a poor Bouchard first round. With Kovinic reaching the Final in Prague and winning, I expect Kristina to be vulnerable and will lay her if 1st set victor.

Today’s BankersShortlist

530pm – FC Stumbras v Zalgiris – 1.12 away – I would expect Zalgiris to lead at halftime. Yesterday’s Lithuanian league match did not go as per the form and that is the concern with these lesser leagues ( hence my continued insistence on banker bets being August -April).

6pm – CSMS Iasi v Steaua Bucharest – 1.28 away – a draw sees Steaua champions on goal difference if Targu win. I am sure Steaua would like to make sure. They have scored 3 in each of their last 3 matches away.

CSMS have had 12 clean sheets in 16 matches.  As Steaua don’t strictly need a win, this is not a banker.

6pm – Targu Mures v Otelul Galati – 1.18 home – now Targu really do need to win. They are 2nd and a win ensures that they take advantage if Steaua lose today.  Targu have had really tight home wins, and have won their last 8 at home.They have had all clean sheet wins v 11th and lower.

Otelul recently beat 1st in the league away from home in April, muddying enthusiasm somewhat.

1115am- Nicolas Almagro v Rafael Nadal – 1.07 Rafa – straight sets win at 1.66 appeals but I would like to trade out if that 1.66 drops to 1.3 in-play.

Little else of value. Murray at 1.33 for 3-0 set betting is of some great appeal but Sousa was a recent finalist in Geneva.

TODAY’S BANKERS

6pm – Targu Mures v Otelul Galati – 1.18 home – Targu Mures need the win, have the form and I expect them to give Steaua a test in the last match of the season.

As I say, no official bets until August and the start of the season proper

Ferrer, Novak, Nadal, Murray all play today and are all expecting 3-0 set wins.