Racing Testing LabA quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.
Background
2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.
Follow these steps below
1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.
2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.
3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
6 735 dundalk Betting forecast: 2/1 Burn The Boats, 9/4 Rummaging, 5/1 Togoville, 1st 2.19
9 835 dundalk Betting forecast: 5/4 Tennesse Waltz, 5/2 Mozetta, 10/1 Silver Sally 2nd 1.23
Today
9 145 kempton Betting forecast: Evs Anwar, 100/30 Rah Rah, 7/1 Ojai
7 510 kempton Betting forecast: 6/4 Proofreader, 3/1 Cerutty, 6/1 Arc Lighter,
22 240 navan Betting forecast: 2/1 Sizing Titanium, 3/1 Little Rocky, 8/1 Master Ruffit,
5 350 navan Betting forecast: 4/11 Jarry D´honneur, 11/4 Toubaloo, 12/1 Rocky Wednesday,
8 425 navan Betting forecast: 9/4 Felix Yonger, 5/2 Flemenstar, 6/1 Argocat,
14 335 stratford Betting forecast: 6/4 Boite, 5/2 Set The Trend, 6/1 Bantam,
9 135 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 11/10 Peggy Do, 2/1 Big Jim, 9/2 Horsehill,
3 245 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 4/7 Little Jon, 5/2 Heronry, 5/1 Got The Nac.